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2025-26 Edmonton Oilers Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/24/2025

Edmonton Oilers predictions Connor McDavid

The Edmonton Oilers season ended in heartbreak last season as they once again fell short in the Stanley Cup Finals. They dominated the Kings in the first round while beating Vegas and Dallas in five games. Unfortunately, their dominant run would end in six games as the Florida Panthers repeated as Stanley Cup Champions. The Oilers finished the regular season with 101 points and a +23-goal differential.

The Oilers averaged 3.16 GF/G ranked just outside the Top 10, which strongly correlates to their two big stars missing extended time. Their special teams were not the best as they cashed in on 23.7% of their power play chances while their 78.2% PK% ranked 16th in the NHL. Despite only appearing in 71 games, Leon Draisaitl led the team with 106 points while also finishing third in the league. His league best 52 goals was seven more than second place. Connor McDavid finished with 100 points in just 67 games (26 goals and 74 assists). Evan Bouchard finished third on the team with 67 points while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman were the only other Oilers players to tally 20 or more goals.

The Oilers goaltending was average at best. They allowed 2.87 GA/G which ranked 14th in the league while their .897 SV% ranked 19th. They had three different goalies take their place in the crease for Edmonton with Stuart Skinner appearing in the majority of the games. He posted a 26-18-4 record across 51 appearances and allowed 2.81 GA/G. Calvin Pickard allowed 2.71 GA/G across 36 appearances, with a team best .900 SV%. Olivier Rodrigue appeared in just two games for Edmonton.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Edmonton Oilers in 2025-26:

Edmonton Oilers Key Additions/Losses

Edmonton began the offseason by trading Evander Kane to the Canucks in a move that freed up over $5 million in cap space. They also flipped Viktor Arvidsson to Boston in a move that added another $4 million in cap space. Jeff Skinner signed with the San Jose Sharks after tallying 29 points for the Oilers last season while Connor Brown left for New Jersey to join the Devils after a 30-point season.

The additions were rather minimal for Edmonton. They signed Andrew Mangiapane to a two-year deal after he scored 14 goals and 28 points for Washington last season. Their only other addition of note was forward Curtis Lazar who tallied five points in 48 games for New Jersey last season.

Edmonton Oilers X-Factors

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evan Bouchard- Bouchard, still just 25, saw his numbers dip last season for the Oilers. He totaled 82 points in 2023/24 but managed just 67 points last year despite appearing in all 82 games. As for Nugent-Hopkins, his numbers have steadily declined over the last two seasons. In 2022/23 he had a career year where he totaled 104 points and 37 goals. Since that season he has had just 38 goals in 158 regular season games and has totaled just 116 points. After just 49 points last year, there is real reason for concern seeing his production cut in half over the course of two seasons. If these two continue to see a decrease in their production, Edmonton is going to be in big trouble since they also lost Brown and Skinner.

Edmonton Oilers Goalie Outlook

The goalie situation is going to be the same for Edmonton. Skinner will get the majority of the starts, but Pickard will be ready and waiting to step in. Both goalies had up and down seasons both in the regular season and in the playoffs. However, once the leash had been pulled the other netminder stepped in and performed at a high level. Pickard saved the Oilers season last year while Skinner has continued to be a consistent regular season goalie. Unfortunately for Edmonton, neither of these goalies have been able to bring home a Stanley Cup and after back-to-back years of losing in the finals, some fans wonder how much longer Skinner and Pickard have to prove themselves. Playoff questions aside, these two form a solid tandem with a high ceiling.

Grade: B

Edmonton Oilers Key Schedule Stretch

The Trade Deadline- The Oilers had some scare with the McDavid rumors over the offseason. If he is unhappy with the Oilers, one of the best ways to mitigate that feeling is to further invest in a supporting cast. Draisaitl and McDavid are two of the best players in the league, but the depth of this team is now a growing concern. The most pivotal schedule stretch for Edmonton this season is how the handle the trade deadline and if their moves will pay off and finally result in a Stanley Cup. Anything less and McDavid may be packing his bags.

Edmonton Oilers Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +800

Conference Winner: +420

Division Winner: +150

Hart Trophy- Connor McDavid: +200

Hart Trophy- Leon Draisaitl: +950

Vezina Trophy- Stuart Skinner: +15000

Edmonton Oilers Prediction

It is hard to bet against a team that has gone to the Stanley Cup in back-to-back years, but the depth remains a big issue, and it seems like the locker room will be tense with all the ensuing McDavid drama that the media will be all over this season. One bad stretch and the media will be throwing McDavid trade rumors out there. Those are less than ideal conditions for a team trying to get over the hump and bring Stanley back to Canada. With that in mind, the internal pressure paired with the external drama it is hard to see Edmonton succeeding this season. The Western Conference will have a new representative this season. Edmonton’s ceiling is 100 points, but they will benefit from the weaker Pacific Division. McDavid at +200 to win the Hart Trophy is reliable, but the +950 number with Draisaitl is incredibly enticing especially if McDavid is moved ahead of the deadline. Edmonton’s season outlook is mirky.  

Under 106.5 Team Total Points

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