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2018 Heisman Trophy Predictions with Odds and Expert Analysis


by Chris Vasile - 9/12/2018

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

We are through two weeks of the college football season, and the Heisman race has shifted gears from front-running running backs to gun-slinging quarterbacks. Yes, four of the top five and nine of the top 11 Heisman odds belong to quarterbacks, with only Jonathan Taylor and Bryce Love representing the backfield.

Prior to the start of the season, I wrote about the chance that Taylor and Love had to end the recent streak of quarterback winners. While they have both performed well in their first two games, the quarterbacks that have overtaken them have simply outperformed them. I talked down Tua Tagovailoa's chances at the Heisman because of his lack of experience and potentially split playing time with Jalen Hurts. Well, two games in and Tagovailoa has taken the starting job and run with it. And I mentioned Will Grier's chance at the Heisman is tied to his team's win/loss record, and so far, so good.

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It's important to keep in mind that two weeks of play is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Players cannot win the Heisman in September, but they can certainly lose it. Each player listed below needs to continue to produce or else their Heisman bubble could burst.

Thanks to our friends at Bovada , you can get the best Heisman odds available.

Tua Tagovailoa - QB - Alabama (+333)

I already mentioned the fact that I talked down Tagovailoa's chance at the Heisman because of inexperience and an uncertain QB situation. Well, Tagovailoa has essentially taking the QB1 position full time now thanks to numbers like 12-for-16 for 227 yards and two touchdowns and 13-for-19 for 228 yards and four touchdowns (three of those in the first quarter). While those may not seem like the "best" numbers to some, Tagovailoa has proven that he is the best pivot at Alabama and that last year's relief appearance in the National Championship Game was no fluke.

Tagovailoa and Co. are on the road at Ole Miss this coming weekend, which could prove to be a hurdle of sorts. The Crimson Tide beat the Rebels 66-3 last year, so expect Ole Miss to come ready to play.

Will Grier - QB - West Virginia (+450)

I called Will Grier the most talented quarterback in college football this year, and I'm sticking to that statement. Grier has led the Mountaineers to two wins, including an impressive thrashing at Tennessee. Grier has completed 46 of 60 pass attempts for 761 yards and nine touchdowns. Sure, he may have tallied five touchdowns against Youngstown State, but Alabama just played Arkansas State, so that's essentially the same thing.

Grier and Co. were scheduled to take on NC State this Saturday, but that game has been postponed due to Hurricane Florence. All signs point to this game being cancelled entirely and since there are no "feasible makeup dates" according to WVU's Director of Athletics Shane Lyons. The lost game should have little to no effect on Grier's chances as there are five players in Heisman history to win the award without playing a full slate of games. Most notably Charlie Ward in 1993 due to a rib injury. If we look ahead to Grier's next few opponents, he should be licking his chops to attack a Kansas State, Texas Tech and Kansas defense that are just simply bad.

Dwayne Haskins - QB - Ohio State (+650)

If an Ohio State quarterback is not in the Heisman discussion, did a college football season really happen? That's the case with Dwayne Haskins, who finds himself in the Heisman race after throwing for 546 yards and nine touchdowns on 44-of-53 passing. The knock against Haskins is that he's done so against Oregon State and Rutgers, who were projected to finish at the bottom of their respective conferences.

Haskins has a tall task ahead of him this week as he will take on a TCU defense that is giving up just 213 yards per game of total offense. A win in which Haskins produces could vault him up and earn him some more votes, but a loss and that could be all she wrote for not only Haskins' Heisman hopes but the Buckeyes' CFP dream.

Jonathan Taylor - RB - Wisconsin (+900)

It was another fruitful week for Taylor as his Badgers rolled to a 45-3 win against an overmatched New Mexico State team. Taylor was at the point of the attack, rushing for 253 yards and three touchdowns on nearly eight yards per carry. That brings Taylor's total to 398 yards rushing and five touchdowns in two games, which is fine and all, but I do believe he is the beneficiary of a system that is meant to feature the running game. Most people around the Big Ten think Taylor is the second- or third-best running back in the conference, so unless Taylor reaches that 2,000-yard mark, he won't have enough votes to garner a serious run at the trophy.

Kyler Murray - QB - Oklahoma (+1200)

And lastly, Kyler Murray from OU makes his first Heisman watch appearance this year, and I am certain he will be on here for a while. Murray has led the Sooners to a 2-0 start, including a dismantling of UCLA just last week. In that game Murray threw for 306 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 69 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. With the unfortunate injury to wide receiver Rodney Anderson, Murray will be tasked to carry more of the offensive load than he already does.

I don't envision that being a problem for him considering they have Iowa State, Army and Baylor on deck as his next three opponents. In a system that relies on QB play, it's safe to say Murray can make a serious run at the Heisman while the No. 5 Sooners can get into the College Football Playoff if things break their way.

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