Kingsbarns Odds to Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Expert Predictions

by Joey House - 4/30/2023

With all of the systems and trends out there that promise to deliver the winner in the Kentucky Derby, it can be bewildering to know which one to follow. The first thing to remember is that there isn't a "perfect" system. Trends are a great place to start your handicapping, but that shouldn't be the only work that is done.

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The other thing that I look for in the trends and systems department is, "Do they make sense?" I will read or listen to any trend or system that comes my way, but that doesn't mean I'll follow or research them. Using a little common sense in determining the importance of a trend can go a long way in handicapping.

One trend that I like my picks to have is “did they win their last time out?”. Obviously, this isn't mandatory (does anyone remember Secretariat?), but nine out of the last 12 Derby winners had won their previous race. That number would rise to 10 if you don't include Maximum Security's disqualification. Kingsbarns is a horse that not only meets this criterion but has the bonus of being undefeated going into the Derby. Since 1915, there have been 34 undefeated entries into the Kentucky Derby and nine of them have stayed that way after the Run for the Roses (Maximum Security would make that number 10 if not for the disqualification).

Last Race: The race that catapulted Kingsbarns into the Kentucky Derby discussion was his impressive almost wire-to-wire finish in the (G2) Louisiana Derby in March. I say “almost” wire-to-wire because there was a very brief stretch in the first turn where Jace's Road momentarily held the lead. Kingsbarns got a great start in the 6th post, got to the rail unimpeded, rode unforced for the first three-quarters of the race, and then responded well once set down entering the lane and ran speedily through the wire.

Previous Races: My only complaint with Kingsbarns is his lack of experience. He won his MSW in the middle of January in Gulfstream, then won an allowance at Tampa Bay Downs a month later. Five weeks after that was the Louisiana Derby. While there were some potential Derby contenders in that race, the level of competition he's faced could be cause for concern.

Trainer: This is another one of Todd Pletcher's entries into this year's Kentucky Derby. He also trains the early favorite Forte and highly thought of Tapit Trice. Pletcher is looking to build upon his Hall of Fame reputation, and he certainly has the horses to do so.

Jockey: This is definitely something to keep an eye on. In the Louisiana Derby, Flavien Prat rode Kinsbarns into the winner's circle. However, since the decision was made to have him mount Angel of Empire, no jockey has been assigned to Kingsbarns. However, Pletcher has access to world-class riders and will surely put a very skilled jockey on Kingsbarns.

Breeding: The lineage for Kingsbarns is excellent. His sire, Uncle Mo, is not only a multiple graded-stakes winner himself but his progeny is incredibly successful. In 2022, 145 of the 292 runners sired by Uncle Mo were winners, to the tune of $14,454,764. The damsire is Tapit, the 2004 Wood winner. In the last couple of years, Uncle Mo has established his own sire line strong on speed. The damsire line provides endurance.

Odds: Currently hovering around 12-1, I think this has the chance to increase to about 15-1, maybe even higher, as a lot of public money will be pouring in on Forte and Angel of Empire.

Prediction: Much of the attention will be coming in on Forte, and for good reason. For those who like to be contrarian, Kingsbarns offers a chance to pivot off of the favorite.

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