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2021 Miami Marlins Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Chris Vasile - 2/24/2021

starling marte miami marlins

Before the 2012 season, the Marlins organization had been known as the Florida Marlins. That version of the Marlins franchise won two World Series titles and was relatively competitive each year. Since the franchise changed its name to the Miami Marlins for the 2012 season, the team has been an absolute disaster. They have finished under .500 in every season and topped 90 losses three times in seven years. That was until the 2020 shortened season happened, and the Marlins were somewhat respectable.  

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Last season, the Marlins finished the year with a 31-29 record, which was good enough for second place in the NL East. They made the postseason for the first time since 2003 and they actually beat out the Cubs 2-0 in the National League Wild-Card Series. From there, the Marlins were swept by the Braves in three straight and failed to score a single run in Games 2 and 3. Nonetheless, positive momentum has been built, and the team is hoping that they can sustain it for 162 games this year and find themselves back playing October baseball.  

The Miami Marlins kick off their 2021 campaign with a six-game homestand, starting with a three-game, inter-league set against the World Series finalists, Tampa Bay, followed by a three-game set with the St. Louis Cardinals. From there, the Marlins hit the road for seven games, starting with three at Citi Field against the Mets and four at Truist Park in Atlanta.

 The Marlins don’t have the worst odds in the Majors to win the World Series at +8000, but they are also still in the bottom half of the odds board. They are +4000 to win the NL and +3300 to win the NL East, which is dead last by a long shot. Their season win total is 74.5, so as you can see, Vegas does not like the Marlins’ chances of picking up where they left off last year and nabbing a playoff spot.

Marlins 2021 Projected Lineup

The Marlins’ projected batting order is borderline embarrassing. They’ve continued to go through the organization and sell off any pieces that are worth a few bucks. This year, the Marlins lineup is void of any speed and/or power from one through nine in the batting order. It should look something like this:

  1. Corey Dickerson
  2. Starling Marte
  3. Jesus Aguilar
  4. Brian Anderson
  5. Adam Duvall
  6. Miguel Rojas
  7. Jon Berti
  8. Jorge Alfaro
  9. Pitchers Spot

I mean, come on. As you can see, this lineup leaves a lot to be desired. The top of the order features three guys over 30 years old, with Dickerson the oldest at 32. Dickerson isn’t your prototypical leadoff guy as he doesn’t hit for power, or average, and has a below-average OBP for a leadoff man. If you can’t get the leadoff guy aboard more times than not, the rest of the lineup will struggle for pitches to hit. If we go off just last year’s shortened season numbers, the trio combined to hit just 21 home runs in 60 games.  

Behind him, you will find a mixed bag of cast-offs that the Marlins scooped up in trades for their better players. Starling Marte has been on a downward trajectory for quite some time, having notched just 49 home runs over the last three seasons, while driving in just 181 runs in that span. He’s old, and he’s a far cry from the player he was with the Pirates early on in his career. As for Aguliar, he has just one good year to his name, and that was in 2018 when he hit 35 home runs and drove in 108. Can he be the answer to the Marlins’ hitting problems? Only time will tell.

Further down the lineup, you’ll find Anderson, who will play third base, Duval, who will play right field, and Rojas, who will play shortstop. This trio is not exactly a who’s who of players, but it was Anderson and who led the team in home runs last year with 11, and the addition of Duvall’s 16 home runs from last season while in Cincinnati should help bolster the offense.

Marlins 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer

If you think the Marlins’ batting order is bad, wait till you see the starting rotation and bullpen. Sandy Alcantara is being forced into the “ace” role, which says it all. Alcantara is coming off a season where he started seven games and earned a 3-2 record. He’s the only Marlins’ pitcher to have an ERA close to sub-three (3.00).  

Behind Straily, the Marlins will rely on a quartet that includes Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Sixto Sanchez, and Trevor Rogers. Out of this batch of pitchers, Hernandez has the most upside. He finished last season with a 1-0 record and a 3.16 ERA in six regular-season starts. The 25-year-old has been able to drop his ERA in each of the last three seasons, and he’ll need to put together an even better campaign to help the Marlins finish the season with a somewhat respectable record.

Another issue the Marlins have is their bullpen. The closer for this season figures to be Anthony Bass. However, with a season win total of 74.5, how many games are the Marlins realistically going to need him to save? Last season, Bass saved seven contests, and he’s the only player in the pen with closing experience.

Marlins 2021 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Miami to win a grand total of 72 games this year, which would leave them short of their win total. That’s the fourth-worst record in the Majors. And when you dissect the roster and notice how much better the other teams in the division are, it’s almost a no-brainer to take the under. Also, taking the under here would have you avoid laying the -200 or higher price tag each game to fade the Marlins.

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