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NBA Play In Tournament Predictions: Odds to Make the Playoffs

by Spencer Toth - 4/10/2023

NBA Play In Tournament predictions Anthony Edwards Minnesota Timberwolves

The NBA regular season has come to a close, and the Play-in Tournament is ready to commence. There are plenty of betting opportunities to take advantage of before the playoffs begin, and the Make/Miss playoff market has never been hotter, and there is some amazing value out there for these props. Let’s dive in.

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Eastern Conference

Toronto Raptors -300 Miss/+230 Make

The Raptors are coming into the tournament needing to win a home game against the Bulls, then a road game against either Miami or Atlanta. It’s a tall task, but the Raptors have won 11 of their last 12 home games and should have no problem dispatching the Bulls on Wednesday night. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Annonuby have the talent and heart to outclass the Bulls ‘Big 3’ and will not wilt in front of the home fans. They are leading the league in both steals, and turnovers, so will have the extra possessions to mitigate their 27th ranked FG%. In high intensity atmospheres, taking advantage of the extra possessions will be critical for the Raptors.

While the first play-in game should be hitch free for Toronto, their trip down South will not be as straightforward. I’m not saying Toronto is the most likely team to make the playoffs, but considering the +230 odds attached to their qualification, this team becomes a must bet. If the 7 vs 8 game in the East turns into a blowout, the Raptors may be able to capitalize on a weakened opposition. If not, there will still be some great hedging opportunities after the Raptors beat down on Chicago. They will certainly be road underdogs. However, assuming the Heat can take care of the Hawks as -200 favorites, the Raptors match up well against Atlanta and should have a fighting chance to put their championship experience to use, something the Hawks are lacking.

Pick: Make +230

Chicago Bulls -900 Miss/+550 Make

The Bulls are a trainwreck. While I’m not thrilled about the -900 attached to their Miss odds, the Bulls are the perfect parlay piece with another sports future. DeMar DeRozan is a fantastic leader but has yet to prove himself in bigtime games. He’s 25-38 in his career in the postseason. And while the play-in tournament isn’t technically the playoffs, I expect DeRozan to fall short again. There is certainly talent in Chicago, but the trio of DeRozan, LaVine, and Vucevic has turned into a disaster, with just 1 playoff win under their belt, and a 10th place finish this season. I’m not expecting anything close to a deep playoff run from the Bulls, and we can cash in on their misery one final time before the season officially closes in Chicago.

The Bulls won their final 2 regular season games but went an incredibly mediocre 12-15 prior to that. I’m rarely an advocate for these types of odds, especially on a future, but this one will only take a week to cash in and is a great addition to any multi-sport parlay. The Bulls will not be winning back-to-back road games against competent teams, and their 18-23 road record doesn’t fill me with confidence.

Pick: Miss -900

Western Conference

New Orleans Pelicans: -400 Miss/+300 Make         

This is the best bet you can make during the play-in tournament. The Pelicans are an unbelievable +300 odds to qualify for the playoffs, and these odds flat out shock me. The Pelicans got off to a red-hot start and found themselves sitting atop the Western Conference with an 18-8 record in mid-December. They then went on a horrendous 15-29 run and were suddenly languishing in 12th place with a 33-37 record. A 9-3 run to close out the season brought New Orleans back into contention, and they’re coming in as the No. 9 seed in the tournament. A home game against the Thunder followed by a trip to what will likely be Minnesota will give the Pelicans a great chance to cash these longshot odds. Brandon Ingram has been borderline unstoppable. And while the extended absence of Zion Williamson has hurt, Ingram has proven he has the potential to lead the team. He’s averaging a career high 24.7 PPG this season, and 29.3 PPG in his last 11 games this season.

Thanks to their game 82 loss to the Timberwolves, the Pelicans will have an uphill battle to qualify. They’ll need to win 2 straight games. However, considering the red-hot form they are taking into the postseason, and the Timberwolves serious issues both on and off the court, the value on this +300 play is undeniable.

Pick: Make +300

Minnesota Timberwolves: -300 Make/+230 Miss

The Timberwolves are a mess. This play is directly related to the Pelicans making the playoffs, but I’m not sure where the Timberwolves are going to find the victory they need to make the playoffs. In their season finale, Rudy Gobert threw a punch at Kyle Anderson during a mid-game huddle and was subsequently benched for the remainder of a must win game for the Timberwolves. Incidents like that don’t come out of thin air, and tensions have clearly been building as the Timberwolves continue to underperform. In these critical games, unity when things may not be going the team’s way is necessary for success.

The Timberwolves do have two chances at qualification, but a road game against the surging Lakers will have them looking ahead to Friday’s matchup for a better chance at qualifying. It is well within the realm of possibility that the Timberwolves get blown out by the Lakers and tensions boil over more than they already are in Minnesota. I understand why the Timberwolves are shaded to make the playoffs, but their impending matchup against New Orleans appears unlikely to go their way.

Anthony Edwards has elevated himself to superstar status, and his 24.6PPG, 45.9 FG%, 36.9 3 PT%, 5.8 Rebounds and 4.4 Assists are all career highs, and the 21-year-old first overall pick is quietly shining through the darkness in Minnesota. There is always a chance he steals a game for the Timberwolves, but the +230 odds on them bowing out are simply too good to pass up.

Pick: Miss +230

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