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2022 Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Devon Rymarchuk - 4/4/2022

Philadelphia Phillies predictions and odds to win the World Series Bryce Harper

World Series Odds: +2500

NL East Division Odds: +300

Over/Under Win Total: 85.5

The Philadelphia Phillies enter 2022 on a mission. And that mission, according to their offseason and commitment level to keep talent in Philly, is snaping their playoff drought dating back to the 2011 MLB season. The Philies are trending in the right direction, and 2021 brought them their first winning season in a decade. They made two massive acquisitions in the offseason and could be better this year. The additions of Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber shook the MLB as two of the top free agents in baseball both going to a loaded National League East. These two players know how to punish mistakes from behind the plate and will address one of the Phillies biggest weaknesses. The Phillies were 22nd in the major leagues last season in slugging percentage against fastballs — and that was with the best hitter in baseball against fastballs (Bryce Harper) in the lineup. They have since added two of the better sluggers against fastballs in the sport. Castellanos ranked seventh last season in slugging percentage against heaters, and Schwarber was ninth. That’s a weakness has become a strength.

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Six of the top 10 offenses in slugging percentage against fastballs last season were postseason teams. Another, the Blue Jays, won 91 games, falling just one game short. A good fastball-hitting team doesn’t guarantee anything. But it helps. Since 2018, 81 hitters have had at least 1,000 plate appearances end with a fastball. Castellanos ranks ninth with a .578 slugging percentage, and Schwarber is 12th with a .570. Defensively, the Phillies were among the worst teams in baseball last season. The drawback on Castellanos and Schwarber are that their bats are about the only impressive part of their games; both are lackluster defensively and will be featured heavily in the DH position. The lineup for the Phillies looks like the following.

Projected lineup

1. Kyle Schwarber, LF

2. Nick Castellanos, DH

3. Bryce Harper, RF

4. J.T. Realmuto, C

5. Rhys Hoskins, 1B

6. Jean Segura, 2B

7. Didi Gregorius, SS

8. Alec Bohm, 3B

9. Odúbel Herrera, CF

As good as the Phillies bats are throughout the lineup, defensively they are not the best. There is no question the strategy going into the year is to make up for their defensive mishaps by an extremely explosive offense that features some of the most power in the major leagues. J.T Realmuto is the considered to be a top 3 Catcher in baseball, and he makes up for defensive weakness throughout the lineup and bats at the top of the lineup. The issue, like many positions in the Phillies lineup, is when Harper of Realmuto need days off, the depth drops off quite a bit.

The Phillies are not giving up on Alec Bohm. As the former No. 1 prospect of the organization, Bohm has struggled in Philadelphia thus far. He ranked as one of the worst defensive players in the MLB in 2021 and did not make up for his defensive struggles offensively, batting .247 with 7 HR and 47 RBI in 380 AB.

Bryce Harper's first two seasons with the Phillies didn't have the outcome that fans expected, but that all changed last year. Harper recorded 35 home runs and 84 RBIs in 141 games last season while leading the league in slugging (.615) and OPS (.1044) en route to his second-ever NL MVP. Harper clearly found his stride in the second half of the season, and the Phillies will be counting on him to carry it into 2022. He's still the club's leader and will be relied upon to have another MVP-caliber season. He's tied for the third-best 2022 NL MVP odds right now. And considering how he's still in his prime, look for Harper to go on another major run.

Projected rotation

1. RHP Zack Wheeler

2. RHP Aaron Nola

3. RHP Kyle Gibson

4. LHP Ranger Suárez

5. RHP Zach Eflin

Their rotation was perhaps the best area of their roster last year, but the depth drops off quickly after Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. The Phillies are counting on Ranger Suárez building on his small sample of success and Kyle Gibson pitching more like he did in Texas last year (2.87 ERA) than Philadelphia (5.09 ERA). This rotation is going to need some production from unlikely places to take a step forward in 2022.

Nola needs a bounce back year. After finishing top seven in Cy Young voting twice in 2018 and 2020, Nola struggled in 2021, going 9-9 in 32 starts with his worst ERA (4.63) since 2016. For the Phillies to contend for the NL East, they must have Nola back at Cy Young caliber form.

Projected bullpen

Closer: RHP Corey Knebel

Setup: LHP José Alvarado, RHP Jeurys Familia, LHP Brad Hand

Middle: RHP Connor Brogdon, RHP Sam Coonrod, RHP Seranthony Domínguez

No one blew more saves in 2021, and only five teams had a worse bullpen ERA. Also, last season the Phillies entire bullpen was worth 1.1 fWAR, the 28th worst total in MLB, ahead of just the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. Analytics believes the Phillies bullpen in 2022 can be counted on for approximately 4.7 fWAR, a total which would have placed them eighth league wide in 2021. However, that is counting on steep improvement from players like Ryan Sherriff, Bailey Falter, and Seranthony Domínguez.

The addition of Knebel is a key piece that could help settle down the bullpen. In 27 outings for the Dodgers last year, he struck out 30 and pitched to a 2.45 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. He looked a lot like the 2017 All-Star Knebel.

Count on the Phillies in to be one of the most exciting teams and baseball, and I am positive many days bettors will be taking the over on total runs scored. With 82 wins last year, and improved roster this season, I believe 85.5 wins will be manageable for the Phillies. I could see them coming third in the NL East and sneaking into the last wild card position with the expanded playoffs coming in 2022 to the MLB, going from 10 teams to 12.

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