2021 Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Chris Vasile - 2/24/2021

From 2008 to 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies won 5 NL East Crowns and a World Series title. Since losing their latest playoff series against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2011 NLDS, the Phillies have been an absolute disaster. They have finished below .500 in seven of the last nine seasons, and that includes two seasons in which they finished with an 81-81 record.

Last season, the Phillies finished with a record of 28-32, which was good enough for third place in the NL East, 7 games back of the division-winning Atlanta Braves. On paper, this team should be much better than they showed last year, but the rotation and bullpen are going to be vital in getting the Phillies back into contention over a 162-game season.

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The Philadelphia Phillies get their 2021 campaign underway with a six-game homestand that will see the Mets and Braves visit Citizens Bank Park for three games apiece. From there, the Phillies head to Truist park in Atlanta for three against the Braves then to Citi Field for four against the Mets. The Phillies are currently +5500 to win the World Series, +2500 to win the NL Pennant and + 900 to win the NL East crown. The season win total is 80.5, which tells us that Vegas expects them to be a mediocre team this year.

Phillies 2021 Projected Lineup

When you look at the Phillies roster, you can only scratch your head and wonder why they are so bad on a yearly basis. They have guys that can hit for power and average and have speed to burn on the bases. The projections for this lineup are outstanding. Therefore, if they can hold up their end of the bargain, the rotation and bullpen need to hold up theirs. As of writing this, the Phillies’ batting lineup looks something like this:

Andrew McCutchen
Alec Bohm
Bryce Harper
J.T. Realmuto
Rhys Hoskins
Didi Gregorius
Jean Segura
Scott Kingery
Pitchers Spot

I fully understand that Andrew McCutchen is a shell of what he was when he broke onto the scene in Pittsburgh, but he’s still quick and still has some pop in his bat as noted by 10 home runs last year. If he can get on base and provide the likes of Bohm and Harper pitches to hit, he will get an A+ grading for his efforts.

Behind him, the Phillies will rely on Bohm, Harper, Realmuto, Hoskins, and Gregorius to do most of the heavy lifting. They are projected to hit a combined 137 home runs this season, with Harper leading the way at a projected 36. Each of these players has a ton to prove to a lot of people, especially Harper, who is continuously criticized for his massive contract. If you are going to get paid like a mega superstar, then the results need to speak for themselves. And with the Phillies not sniffing a postseason berth in the Harper era, the criticism is warranted to an extent.

Phillies 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer

The Phillies’ pitching staff is comprised of young pitchers who have extreme upside. Unfortunately, none of them, outside of their staff “ace”, Aaron Nola, has been able to put together an effective full season. Nola was one of the lone bright spots last year for the Phillies, pitching to a record of 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA.

Behind Nola, the Phillies will trot out Zack Wheeler, Zack Eflin, Vince Velasquez, and Matt Moore. Wheeler and Eflin are the more known pitchers out of this foursome, but it was Wheeler who had the better 2020 season. The former Mets product started 11 games last year and pitched himself to a 4-2 record with a 2.92 era. He’s been a .500 or better pitcher three straight years, so it’s critical that he keep up the solid work if the Phillies want to stay out of the basement. Behind him, Eflin, Velasquez, and Moore will need to contribute to the cause in a big way, with the latter of the trio not even pitching last year.

In terms of the bullpen, the Phillies will rely on Hector Neris to do the closing. Neris performed admirably last season and was able to convert five save opportunities but had an ERA of 4.57. The Bullpen was the Phillies’ downfall last season. And if it doesn’t perform better, the Phillies will be behind the eight-ball all season long.

Phillies 2021 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Philadelphia to finish the season with an 80-82 record, which would be good enough for fourth place in the division. If that does in fact happen, it’ll be another disappointment for Phillies fans and the criticism will only continue to pile up. The season win total is right where it should be. However, one look at the batting order and it’s hard to pull the trigger on the under. I’d take the over if the price was right.

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2021 Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

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