Stronghold Odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/26/2024

While trends can be very useful to start the handicapping process, it is important to remember that they are fluid and subject to change. One trend that used to garner a lot of attention was horses that had raced in the California circuit before the Kentucky Derby were highly regarded. Since its inaugural race in 1935, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) has produced 17 Kentucky Derby winners. In the past decade, five horses raced in California before heading east for the Derby. Both of the last Triple Crown winners (2015-American Pharoah and 2018-Justify) followed the California-to-Kentucky path. However, in the past 5 editions of the Derby, only Authentic in the Covid year of 2020, when the Kentucky Derby was held in September, has shipped in from California. Stronghold looks to re-ignite the California trend in this year's Kentucky Derby.

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Breeding: Stronghold's pedigree is incredibly impressive. He was sired by Ghostzapper out of the Jimmy Creed mare Spectator. Ghostzapper's racing resume is filled with first-place finishes, including his last six consecutive stakes races, one of which was the 2004 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). He failed to win only twice in his 11-race career, with a 3rd-place in the 2003 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) and a 4th-place on his second trip at Santa Anita. Ghostzapper has sired 1,355 foals, of which 740 (55%) went on to win races for a massive earnings mark of $123,604,002.

Trainer: Stronghold is trained by Philip D'Amato, a California circuit veteran. While this will be his first Kentucky Derby, he has multiple Grade 1 winners under his watchful eye, including the 2016 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint with Obviously.

Jockey: After starting with seasoned Kentucky jockey Joe Talamo and getting mixed results, D'Amato switched riders once Stronghold relocated to sunny California. His jockey for the four races out there has been Italian native Antonio Fresu. Fresu is ranked a respectable 18th in North America with over $3 million in earnings this season and a win rate of 24%.

Prior experience: Stronghold began his racing career last August in a 6F Maiden Special Weight (MSW) race at Ellis Park in Kentucky. He finished second and took a little over a month off before taking his second crack at breaking his maiden. This was accomplished in a one-mile MSW at Churchill Downs on October 1. D'Amato then shipped the fresh winner out to the West Coast and entered the 2023 Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar Racetrack on Nov. 11th. While he finished second to Nysos in a 4-horse field, it was a distant second and never threatened the winner. His next effort a month later in the 2023 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) was a much more valiant attempt. In another small horse field (5), he fiercely battled with the eventual winner Wynstock the last 3/16 of the 1 1/16 mile race. He had a two-month layoff until he ran another 1 1/16 mile route in the 2024 Sunland Park Derby (G3) at Sunland Park, New Mexico. In this 8-horse stakes race, Stronghold ran a smart race, leading or running with the leader the entire race, pulling away to win by 2 lengths. All of these races were leading up to Stronghold's opus, so far, in the 1 1/8 mile 2024 Santa Anita Derby (G1). The second-favorite at 2-1 of the 8-horse field, Fresu showcased Stronghold's abilities, such as stalking a front-runner, impressive tactical speed, and the fearlessness to split two rivals when needed. In the end, he was engaged in a heated duel with the 1-1 favorite Imagination, in which Strong edged him by a head.

Odds, Analysis, and Predictions: An attractive longshot at 18-1, Stronghold raises some major red flags, mainly the trainer-jockey lack of experience being the most significant. However, this drawback is mitigated by the fact that this is a slightly inexperienced Derby field, with no fewer than seven first-time trainers. Stronghold's speed numbers have not jumped off the page, but then again, besides Fierceness, no other numbers have been blazingly fast. There are some reassuring attributes that Stronghold possesses as well. While he might not have won every race he entered, he has been incredibly consistent with his performances, and each has improved on the previous race. His last time out in the Santa Anita, in particular, gives much hope to Stronghold's backers. He showed he had the tactical speed to navigate large field races, which is a key component of the Kentucky Derby. I think this race is setting up perfectly for Stronghold to make an impact. There is a lot of attention being paid to a few horses, lowering Stronghold's odds. Any time you can get the Santa Anita winner in the mix at prices in the neighborhood of 18-1, it is wise to throw him in exotics.

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