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2020 Super Bowl Betting for Dummies and Novice Bettors


by Trevor Whenham - 1/21/2020

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

Sports betting is not rocket science. But it can seem complicated for people who aren't familiar with the intricacies of it. And at this time of year the Super Bowl draws millions of people who really aren't familiar with sports betting to bet on the game. It's the only time all year that many of them will bet on a game and one of the few times that millions more will make a bet. This is for all of those people - a guide to making the bets that make sense even if you aren't a serious bettor. This is Super Bowl betting for dummies:

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Start with the outcome: This should be entirely self-evident, but I know from plenty of conversations with casual bettors over the years that it is not. When you look at the Super Bowl - or any other game ever played, for that matter - the first step has to be to take the time to break it down and think about how you expect the game to turn out. Once you have done that, you can look at the lines and prop bets that are being offered, and you can quickly get a sense of which ones are the most attractive and which ones are not at all worth betting . Too often, people look at the odds before they have looked at the game at all. You can't know what is fair or reasonable when you do it that way, and it is way too easy to have your opinion guided too much by the numbers on the board. It's like when you go to an auction to buy something. Successful buyers know before the bidding ever starts how much they are willing to spend, what would be a good deal, and what wouldn't make sense. The bidders who don't do that work in advance are the ones who wind up getting in crazy bidding wars and spend far more than the item is worth. They can't possibly come out ahead because they didn't do their homework first. In the same way, it is very tough to make smart bets if you haven't done enough in advance to know what a smart bet actually is.

 

Know what you are betting on : If you go to a Super Bowl party with a lot of people that don't spend a lot of time betting on football through the year, I guarantee you will hear things that will amaze you. Casual bettors too often have no understanding of what a line is and how it works, what it costs to make a bet, why some bets make more sense than others, and even how to tell if a bet is a winner or not when the game ends. If you don't know what you are betting on, you obviously can't make a good bet. This is especially important with the Super Bowl because all of the prop bets that are offered can sound fun and interesting but often aren't quite what they appear to be.

 

Stay legal: It is easier than it has been in a very long time to make legal sports bets in the United States, and it's only going to keep getting easier. With so many legal options available, there is no reason to break the law in pursuit of action.

 

Shop around: Let's say you were looking to buy a new car. Would you walk into the first dealership you saw, point at the first car in the lot, and pay whatever price was on the windshield? Or would you compare the dealerships to find the best price for the model you are looking for? If the answer to that isn't painfully obvious then just stop reading this - we can't help you. It's just as important to shop around between different sportsbooks for the best price before you make a bet. A difference in price or in point spread between books could easily be the difference between profitability and regret on a big day like this one. This is especially important if you are going to be betting a lot of props, because the price of them can vary widely from book to book.

 

Check yourself: The best sports bettors in the world lose at least 40 percent of the bets they make on the NFL. And, with all due respect, you are not one of the world's best sports bettors. You might feel very confident about the game and your opinion, but you have to be aware that chances are very good that you are going to be wrong. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't bet, obviously. Just don't bet money that you can't afford to lose - easily afford to lose.

 

The coin flip is for idiots: One of the popular prop bets every year is the coin toss . And if you even consider betting on it, I have lost respect for you. It's not the only sucker bet out there, but it is the easiest one to avoid. The chances of the coin coming up heads is exactly 50 percent. You know that. But no sports book offers even money on the bet. Most don't even come close, fleecing you at -115 or -120 for the privilege of making a truly stupid bet. Don't make this bet!

 

Have fun: There are a lot of people out there who think that betting on sports is more serious and more important than world peace or anything else. Those people are very wrong. Take your preparation seriously, but don't take yourself too seriously. Nobody wants to be around someone who does that.

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