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2024 Texas Longhorns Football Predictions and Betting Odds

by Matt Zitt - 8/22/2024

Texas Longhorns football predictions Quinn Ewers

2023 Record: 12-2 (8-1) in the Big 12; SEC Finish: N/A AP Poll: 4th | Coaches Poll: 4th | Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian 71-49 | 11th Season | Defensive Coordinator: Pete Kwiatkowski | Offensive Coordinator: Kyle Flood

Texas Longhorns Futures Odds (DraftKings)

National Championship Odds: +850 | CFB Playoff Odds: -230 | SEC Championship Odds: +320  | Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +150 | UNDER 10.5 -180

If Texas’ offense has reloaded successfully with portal pass-catchers, and if the defense can develop a solid rotation of interior linemen, the Longhorns have a chance to contend in Year 1 in the SEC with the goal of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff. Playing at Michigan on Sept. 7 will be an early barometer.

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Previewing Texas' Offense for 2024

When Quinn Ewers announced that he was returning to Texas for a third season despite losing leading pass-catchers Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Whittington, first-team All-Big 12 tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders and 1,000-yard rusher Jonathon Brooks to the NFL, you figured portal help was likely on the way. Meet portal receivers Isaiah Bond of Alabama, Matthew Golden of Houston, Silas Bolden of Oregon State and tight end Amari Niblack of Alabama.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian is adding that portal skill talent to an offense returning four starters on the line, including first-team All-Big 12 junior left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.; a pair of rising stars running backs in junior Jaydon Blue (6.1 ypc in 2023) and sophomore CJ Baxter (4.8 ypc in 2023); and senior tight ends Gunnar Helm and Juan Davis. 

With Ewers, a Heisman Trophy favorite, and sophomore backup Arch Manning at quarterback, Sarkisian is simply reloading a unit that averaged 35.8 points per game in reaching the College Football Playoff in 2023.

Previewing Texas' Defense for 2024

It might be too much to expect Texas’ defense to maintain its No. 3 FBS ranking against the run in 2023 (82.4 ypg) after losing 2023 Outland Award winner T’Vondre Sweat, Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year Byron Murphy and two-time first-team All-Big 12 middle linebacker Jaylan Ford — all to the NFL Draft.

But Texas has a lot of returning talent, including second-leading tackler Anthony Hill Jr., a freshman All-American in 2023 who is expected to move from weak side to middle linebacker. Sophomore Malik Muhammad is a rising star at cornerback.

The Longhorns also brought in portal help at defensive tackle (senior Tiaoalii Savea of Arizona), at safety (senior Andrew Mukuba of Clemson), at edge rusher (junior Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks for UTSA in 2023) and at linebacker (senior Kendrick Blackshire of Alabama). 

Previewing Texas' Specialists for 2024

Kicker Bert Auburn hit 20 of his last 21 field goal attempts in 2023 and returns as the starter in 2024. Texas will attempt to replace Stanford transfer punter Ryan Sanborn (45.7 yards per punt in 2023) with true freshman Michael Kern. The Longhorns have a lot of speed options in the return game, including Bond, Golden and Johntay Cook II.

2024 Texas Football Schedule

Aug 31 Colorado State
Sept 7 at Michigan
Sept 14 UTSA
Sept 21 ULM
Sept 28 Mississippi State
Oct 5 OPEN DATE
Oct 12 vs Oklahoma (in Dallas)
Oct 19 Georgia
Oct 26 at Vanderbilt
Nov 2 OPEN DATE
Nov 9 Florida
Nov 16 at Arkansas
Nov 23 Kentucky
Nov 30 at Texas A&M

Texas Longhorns 2024 Season Win Total Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

Texas is not the lock you probably think it is. It is probably SEC Championship/national title worthy, but it takes three to screw this all up.  A 10-2 Texas gets into the expanded College Football Playoff. But 9-3 does not, and last year the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma and had to work WAY too hard to get by Houston, TCU, and Iowa State. Throw in the close call win over Kansas State, and what it took to get by Alabama, and it was not always smooth. This year’s Texas team will rip through the Vanderbilts and ULMs of the world. However, again, lose three, and all the hype and expectations fizzle. At Michigan, at Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Georgia. At least 100 other programs go 0-4 against that, and Texas must be -- at worst - 2-2, and cannot whiff against a Florida, or a Kentucky, or an Arkansas. Overall, the schedule is not horrible -- six games against teams that did not go bowling and no Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, or Tennessee to face -- but the idea of Texas being “back” cannot mean returning to losing a bunch of games it shouldn’t. It will not -- it’ll get into the new College Football Playoff -- but it’ll take a lot of work to get there.

Texas Longhorns Preseason Predictions

Under 10.5 (-180) (DraftKings)

Texas Longhorns Best Bets

As of right now, the Texas Longhorns have the fourth-best odds of winning the national title at +850. This program reloaded through the transfer portal after losing key pieces, but returning your starting quarterback, the most important position, is huge. I believe the schedule is in their favor as long as they do not lay any eggs against inferior teams. I think the Longhorns finish 10-2, make the playoffs, and use last year’s experiences to navigate the field into the championship game. Ewers has the third best odds at winning the Heisman Trophy, so that is not a bad bet either.

Texas +850 to win the national title and Quinn Ewers +1000 to take home the Heisman Trophy 

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