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2021 Texas Rangers Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Chris Vasile - 3/24/2021

joey gallo texas rangers

It has been a very interesting decade for the Texas Rangers organization. In the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the Rangers finished first in the AL West by winning 90 and 96 games, respectively, and appeared in two World Series. The problem is that they lost both of them to the Giants and Cardinals, respectively. Josh Hamilton was the AL MVP in 2010. And since then, the organization has zero success to show for its efforts.

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They have missed the playoffs in six of the last eight seasons, including last year when they finished the COVID shortened season with a record of 22-38, which was good enough for dead last in the AL West. To say the Rangers are in desperate need of a shake-up or a generational-type player would be an understatement. 

The Rangers will open the regular season on April 1 with a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium against the Kansas City Royals. From there, the Rangers return home and welcome the Toronto Blue Jays to town for three games and then the San Diego Padres for three. The Rangers come into this season as afterthoughts to win the World Series as they check in at +15000. They are +8000 to win the AL Pennant and +7500 to win the AL West. Their win total has been set at 66.5.

Rangers 2021 Projected Lineup

One quick look at the Rangers batting order, and you’ll quickly see why they are not expected to be very good this season. Their projected lineup for opening day looks like this:

  1. Isiah Kiner-Falefa
  2. David Dahl
  3. Joey Gallo
  4. Rougned Odor
  5. Nick Solak
  6. Nate Lowe
  7. Ronald Guzman
  8. Jose Trevino
  9. Leody Taveras

Where do I even start with this lineup? I guess we can start with the fact that it’s a relatively young lineup with nobody over the age of 28, and it has the potential to be good based solely on the fact that they play in Texas, where the balls fly out of the ballpark like nobody’s business.

Kiner-Falefa will be tasked with the leadoff role, and he’ll play shortstop. He’s coming off a season in which he managed to hit for a .280 average with three homeruns and eight stolen bases. The projections for him this season are promising, with eight long balls and 15 stolen bases. He will be crucial to setting the table for the next trio of players who are expected to produce the bulk of the runs.

Dahl, Gallo, and Odor are coming off seasons that they’d much rather forget. Each one of them hit below .183 on the season, but Gallo and Odor both knocked 10 balls out of the park. They will need to live up to and exceed their projections of the Rangers want any chance of even reaching the .500 mark this season. Gallo is expected to lead the way with 41 homeruns, with Odor (24) and Dahl (15) right behind him. The averages won’t be there, so it’ll be boom or bust for this trio.

Further down the lineup, the projections state that everyone except for Trevino will reach the double-digit mark for homeruns, but only two guys will hit above .250 on the season. If the bottom of the order can’t produce runs or flip the lineup over and get on base for the top of the order, the Rangers are going to be in for a long season.

Rangers 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer

One quick look at this rotation and you’ll be wise to bet the “over” in the majority of their games. The rotation stinks. It features guys like Kyle Gibson, Kohei Arihara, Mike Foltynewicz, Jordan Lyles and Dane Dunning.

Three of those five guys had ERAs above 5.00 last season, with Gibson checking in with the lowest at 5.35. Foltynewicz had an ERA of 16.20 in one start, and Lyles was just as bad, posting an ERA of 7.02. Surprisingly, Dunning was the best pitcher on the rotation, as he started seven games and kept his ERA to a very respectable 3.97.

Arihara is the new addition from Japan, so the jury is still out on what he can actually bring to the team and how he will fare against Major League hitters.

As for the bullpen, there are a few new faces this season, but they are still one of the weaker links on the team. The Rangers acquired Ian Kennedy from the Royals, Josh Sborz from the Dodgers, Hunter Wood from the Indians and Hyun-jong Yang from the Korean league. Your guess is as good as mine as to how they’re going to manage their bullpen.

Rangers 2021 Predictions

FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays to finish with a record of 71-91, which would put them last in the AL West. Based on everything I just mentioned, from the lack of offensive firepower to a pitching staff that could be among the worst in the Majors, I’d go with the under on their season win total. They just aren’t very good.

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