NCAA Hoops Betting: Under the Radar
by Christopher G. Shepard  - 2/12/2010


As the college hoops season makes its push toward March Madness savvy gamblers can still find value in the teams that have yet to capture the  public’s imagination. This week I have found three more schools to put on your  ‘strong buy’ list when investing in the final weeks of the NCAA Men’s  Basketball Exchange. 
  
  Drake (11-15 SU, 13-7-1 ATS, +530) The Bulldogs may have lost their last  three games in a row, and four of their last five, but Coach Mark Phelps has  gone 2-1 ATS in that same time span. Meanwhile, in their home loss on Wednesday  to Missouri Valley Conference leader and 19th-ranked Northern Iowa,  the Bulldogs only went to the charity stripe three times and made one free  throw. Not a good sign for a team that averages more than 60 percent from the  stripe. The good news for Drake is that they are done with Northern Iowa for  the season. Northern Iowa has now broken two of the Bulldogs’ ATS win streaks.  On Jan. 27 Drake lost to Northern Iowa, which cost them a six-game ATS win  streak. 
  
  This Saturday I have what could be termed by investors as my Game of the Year  play on Drake. The Bulldogs travel to Indiana State on Saturday and then host  Southern Illinois on Tuesday. However, Drake has a good chance for avenging for  the 20-point drubbing they took at the hands of Indiana State in January. The  Bulldogs will face a hobbled Sycamores team on Saturday since Indiana State’s  two leading scorers, Harry Marshall and Dwayne Lathan, are both out with  injuries. Combined with being mired in a three-game losing streak you should  see Drake actually giving points in this game, or the number ranging around a  ‘pick‘em’. Whatever the case you should consider backing the Bulldogs in this  spot on Saturday.
  
    Valparaiso (13-14 SU, 14-8-1 ATS, +520) Head Coach Homer Drew’s Crusaders  hit a speed bump en route to rising in the ranks of the Horizon League. Valpo  had won seven of nine games SU entering this week, but has since dropped their  last two contests SU and ATS.   The  Crusaders had a seven-game ATS winning streak broken versus Illinois–Chicago,  83-82, as 10.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Three days later Valpo traveled to Cleveland  State and lost, 80-71, as +7.5 road dogs. It was the second consecutive game  that the Crusaders have not covered. They conclude their brutal schedule of  three-games in five days stretch at Youngstown State on Saturday so it has been  a busy week.
  
  However, despite their last two losses the Crusaders are still one of the best  three-point shooting teams in the Horizon. The Crusaders have buried at least  10 three-pointers in six games and have hit at least 45 percent of their  three-point shots in eight games this season. Gamblers should note that in  their last seven outings the Crusaders games have been decided by single  digits. If you are thinking of investing in Valpo this Saturday the Crusaders  are 8-2-1 ATS after a SU loss and 4-0-1 after an ATS loss. 
  
    South Florida (15-8 SU, 15-6-1 ATS, +840) I think it is safe to say that if  you are Stan Heath’s Bulls and you beat Pittsburg at home and Georgetown on the  road you are no longer flying under the radar on the East Coast. However, on a  national scale the Bulls may not have resonated due a 5-6 Big East Conference  record. The Bulls have not cracked the Top 25 yet despite winning five of their  last seven games SU. South Florida, more importantly has gone 7-0 ATS over the  same time period. 
  
  The Bulls have done it behind the hot shooting of junior guard Dominique Jones,  who has been unstoppable until the Notre Dame game when the Bulls lost, 65-62,  as 7.5-point road ‘dogs. Against Pitt and Georgetown Jones was a monster,  averaging close to 30-points per game. Notre Dame’s lock down defense limited  Jones to 3-17 shooting from the field, but he turned it on with eight assists  and missed the three at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. 
  
  Despite the ATS tear I still like South Florida as team to back for the  remainder of the season. They have three of their next five games at home and  in that span they’ll need to beat Cincinnati (and they’ll also travel to  Marquette on Saturday and Villanova in 10 days). I think college hoops  investors will find they’ll get a good number in both the Villanova and  Cincinnati game so circle those now. 
  
    Last Week
Last week I took a Northern approach and examined  Northwestern, North Texas and Northeastern. As I figured Northwestern abused  Indiana with strong inside play, winning 78-61 and easily covering the number  at home as a 9.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Wildcats ended up losing to Iowa, 65-78, as  a 3.5-point road favorite. Meanwhile, Northeastern cruised by Georgia State at  home to the tune of 62-53 but will have a stiff challenge against William and  Mary this Saturday. North Texas continued its winning and covering ways as Mean  Green destroyed New Orleans, 68-46, and is only one game in the loss column  from tying Arkansas State for first in the West Division of the Sun Belt  Conference. This Saturday the Mean Green will host Denver, which should bring  another ducat to the ATS win column for North Texas. 
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