College Football Predictions for Betting: Alabama Vs. Arkansas Odds and Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 9/24/2010
The one thing about being on the top is that there is only one direction left to go.
Alabama – the most dominant team in the most powerful conference in college football, the No.1 team in the country, and the defending national champions – hits the road this week in what will be its first real “test” of the season. The Crimson Tide takes on upstart No. 13 Arkansas in its SEC opener at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday in Lafayette. The top team in the land is a healthy favorite and is intent on imposing its will on another helpless foe.
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Alabama has gone 3-0 to start this season and has won its three games by a combined score of 134-19. Last week, in their first road game of the year, the Crimson Tide lambasted Duke, 62-13. Alabama was up 28-0 midway through the first quarter and they led 42-6 with less than a minute to play in the half. Domination isn’t the word.
The Crimson Tide have posted back-to-back perfect SEC regular seasons and will be looking for their 17th straight conference regular season win. Dating back to the start of the 2008 season Alabama is 17-1 against conference foes, with the lone loss coming in the 2008 SEC Championship Game against Florida.
However, this week’s game will be decidedly more challenging. Arkansas held off an inspired charge by Georgia last week in Athens to pick up its first SEC win of the year. The Razorbacks have outscored their three opponents 106-34 so far in their opening three wins.
Heisman Trophy candidate Ryan Mallett, the undisputed top quarterback in the conference, if not the country, leads Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a little light on the defensive side of the ball but Mallett ensures that they are never out of any game. Arkansas has 17 starters back from a team that, despite getting “blown out” in Alabama, only was outgained by 170 yards in the last meeting. Nine of those starters are of the three-year variety and they are one of the most experienced teams in the nation.
While all of the talk this week will certainly be about how “unbeatable” Alabama is, there is no doubt that they need to be on Upset Alert heading into this Southern struggle.
The home team has won five of six meetings between these two schools. However, Alabama has demolished the Hogs the last two years, winning 35-7 and 49-14 in the two matchups. Alabama has won 18 consecutive SEC openers and they have gone a remarkable 29-2 straight up over the last two-plus seasons.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks Football Betting Odds
The No. 1 team in the nation is a solid 7.5-point road favorite over host Arkansas according to college football odds. This line actually opened with Alabama -7.0, but was quickly pushed off that key number to its present state. Through the early part of the week the public has been pounding Alabama to the tune of 73 percent action. The total on this game opened at 49.0 but was quickly bet up to 54.0.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Trends
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Crimson Tide is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Crimson Tide is 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Crimson Tide is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Razorbacks are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks Football Betting Picks and Predictions
I know that I might be in the minority here, but I’m leaning on Arkansas in this situation. Arkansas lost 35-7 in Tuscaloosa last year, but that game was just 14-7 late in the third quarter. So far this season the Crimson Tide have simply devastated their opponents. However, who have they played, really? San Jose State? Feeble Penn State? Pathetic Duke? The Crimson Tide should overwhelm those teams. But I don’t think that Arkansas is going to be overmatched, physically, the way those teams were.
Arkansas is a very experienced team and they have some big-time players on both sides of the ball. Mallett and D.J. Williams are future pros, and even though Lafayette doesn’t really give the Hogs a big home edge the Razorbacks will still benefit from some juice from the crowd. The points here are awful enticing, as is the fact that the public is all over Alabama. I think that there could be some value with the home dog here…if you have the stones to wager against the best program in the country.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional NFL and college football handicapper for Doc’s Sports. Last year he brought home +62.5 Units for his clients for NFL picks and he is regarded as one of the top totals players in the sport. He has turned a profit in 5 of 6 football weeks and has a College Football Game of the Year on deck for this weekend. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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