College Basketball Betting: Hot or Not handicapping Report
by Dave Schwab - 12/12/2011
Last week’s action should bring about a major shake up at the top of the men’s college basketball rankings with losses by both No.1 Kentucky and No.2 Ohio State. The Wildcats were stunned by Indiana, 73-72, as 5.5-point home favorites and the Buckeyes, with Jared Sullinger still out of the lineup, fell to No.13 Kansas, 76-67, as 1.5-point road underdogs on college basketball odds.
Here is a look at this week’s hot and not teams in college basketball in terms of not only their overall record straight up, but also their performance where it counts the most; against the spread.
Who is Hot
There has been a shake-up in our rankings as well as the St. Joseph’s Hawks, out of the Atlantic-10, have ascended to the top of the list with a 7-3 record straight-up, but they are a highly profitable 7-1 against the spread. This past Saturday, the Hawks knocked-off No.17 Creighton, 80-71, as one-point home underdogs. This was their fourth SU win in their last five games and fifth-straight win ATS. St. Joe’s is averaging 72.8 points a game, while shooting a solid 47.7 percent from the field. Carl Jones leads the team in scoring with 19.4 points a game and Langston Galloway is second with an average of 15.6 points a game. This upcoming Saturday, the Hawks play host to Philadelphia city-rival Villanova in what could be another golden opportunity to cash in on this team.
The next team on our list has also been a rising star over the past week. The Big Ten’s Wisconsin Badgers’ 62-51 victory over UNLV this past Saturday as 9.5-point home favorites raised their record to 8-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. The No.16-ranked Badgers are just 2-2 SU in their last four games, but the two losses were to North Carolina and Marquette. They did cover against the Tar Heels as seven-point road underdogs and the 61-54 loss to the Golden Eagles as 7.5-point home favorites was their only blemish ATS. Wisconsin’s trio of playmakers consists of Ben Brust, Jared Berggren, and Jordan Taylor. These three have combined for an average of 36 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists a game. As a whole, the team is averaging 68.1 points a game, but it is holding opponents to just 44.9 points, which is the lowest average in the nation.
A couple of other teams that continue to be profitable ATS are the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and the LSU Tigers. The Blue Raiders failed to cover in their last two outings, but are still 9-2 SU and 8-2 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their 10 games this year. The Tigers are 6-3 SU on the year after three straight wins and 6-1 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of their seven games.
Who is Not
The reason you might want to take a hard look at St. Joes this Saturday is because the Villanova Wildcats have vaulted to the top of this dubious list with four losses in their last five games SU and a costly 0-5 record ATS in their last five. This past Saturday, the Wildcats lost to Temple, 78-67, as four-point road underdogs. This followed Tuesday’s 81-71 loss to Missouri as 7.5-point underdogs. Villanova is averaging 75 points a game, but is giving-up close to 70 points a game. It is shooting 43.7 percent from the floor and 33.2 percent from three-point range.
Another team that continues to be a major drain on the bankroll this season is the Horizon League’s Butler Bulldogs. Their fall from grace has been swift with a 4-6 record SU and a 0-6-1 record ATS. They are coming off a 58-55 loss to Ball State last Saturday that actually resulted in a ‘push’ as they closed as three-point road underdogs. The Bulldogs are shooting a dreadful 38.5 percent from the floor and just 64 percent from the free-throw line. Things only get tougher from here with a matchup at home against 9-2 Purdue this upcoming Saturday.
A few others that have been brutal ATS this season are two more teams from the Big East; the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Scarlet Knights are 4-5 SU, but 0-6 ATS and the Irish are a respectable 7-4 SU, but a costly 0-4-2 ATS.
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