2011 Insight Bowl Predictions: Iowa vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds
by Nolan Sinclair - Strike Point Sports - 12/21/2011
For one team the Insight Bowl is about what should’ve been. For the other it is about what could be.
No. 19 Oklahoma will square off with Iowa in the 2011 Insight Bowl. The game will kick off at 10 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 30, at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. The spread on this game opened at 16.5, which was the highest of any bowl spread released in Las Vegas this winter.
This is a matchup that features two teams that no one saw meeting in a bowl game. At one point Oklahoma was ranked No. 1 in the nation while Iowa was, has been, and is a middle-tier team out of the Big Ten.
But the Sooners offense has been decimated by injuries, including losing one of the best wideouts in college football in Ryan Broyles and leading rusher Dominque Whaley. Oklahoma stumbled a the end of the season, losing two of three games, and now they find themselves out of a BCS bowl and playing in a pre-New Year’s snoozer.
However, their two late-season losses, to Oklahoma State and Baylor, came against considerably better competition than what Iowa seems to offer. Then again, Oklahoma also has that bizarre loss to Texas Tech on its resume, and that shows that they can be beaten on any given day.
And another key consideration is that Oklahoma could suffer a letdown after losing that Bedlam Game to their rivals in Stillwater.
Oklahoma has the No. 4-ranked offense in the nation and the No. 62 defense. And the fact that they are ranked in the Top 5 despite losing two of their best players is quite notable. And given the fact that Iowa’s defense hasn’t been all that daunting the Sooners should have no trouble putting some points on the board.
Iowa also stumbled down the stretch. They lost three of their last five games and dropped four of their last six outings against the spread. Iowa is also just 1-4 ATS on the road this season with losses to Iowa State, Penn State, Minnesota and Nebraska.
It should be interesting to see how much of an effect the impending retirement of Norm Parker will have on the Iowa defense. Their long-time defensive coordinator is calling it quits following the Insight Bowl, and I think the Hawkeyes D will come to play in this one.
The Hawkeyes truly enjoy playing for Parker and they won’t want to disappoint in his final hurrah.
2011 Insight Bowl Odds
Oklahoma opened at -16.5 with the total being set at 56, according to college football odds.
The line has dropped a bit as money has slid it to 13.5 at most books. That is the definition of a reverse line movement as a majority of the bets in this game have come in on the Sooners.
Also, the total has shot up to 57.5 and is available at 58.0 at nearly half of he books.
2011 Insight Bowl Betting Trends
Iowa is 4-0 ATS in their last four Bowl Games.
Iowa is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as more than a 10.5-point underdog.
Iowa is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.
Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in their last non-conference games.
Oklahoma is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss.
Oklahoma is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl Games.
The ‘Over’ is 5-0-1 in the last six Iowa non-conference games.
The ‘Under’ is 10-4 in the last 14 Oklahoma games on grass.
2011 Insight Bowl Predictions
This one just seems to lack the pizzazz of many of the other late-December/early-January matchups. The Sooners should be playing against a better team on a better date, but injuries derailed what could have been an amazing season for Oklahoma fans.
You never know what you will get from a team that is playing in a bowl game that they are too good for. But the Sooners will end this season on a positive note.
Iowa may keep this game close for a half, but that is about it. The Hawkeyes will get overpowered by the Sooners on both sides of the ball and Oklahoma walks away with a 20-point victory.
Many people will want to jump on the ‘over’ here as well, as Oklahoma has a shot of putting up high 40s. But the smart money is on a slower game. I don’t think this total gets past 55 points, so with the total sitting at 57.5-58 the ‘Under’ looks quite intriguing.
2011 Insight Bowl Free Pick: Take ‘Under’ 58.0 Oklahoma vs. Iowa
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