Super Bowl Handicapping Trends for Betting: Two-Week Layoff
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 2/2/2011
Take away all the Super Bowl hoopla, the 105,000 capacity stadium, the thousand dollar seats, the million dollar commercials, the onslaught of fans, media and attention, and perhaps the biggest difference in the Super Bowl for players on both sides is the two-week layoff between conference championship Sunday and Super Bowl Sunday.
The Steelers have had two bye weeks this season, their regular-season bye week and the first-round bye they earned with the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Green Bay has only had one bye week this season as it was the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
If the recent past of each team tells us anything, we could be in store for a classic. Both the Steelers and Packers are pretty darn good teams on six days rest. But when you give them another full week to prepare and they are nearly unbeatable.
Mike Tomlin’s first season in Pittsburgh was the 2007-08 season. That year as a road favorite Pittsburgh lost,31-28, at Denver. Since then, though, Tomlin is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread playing after a bye week. That includes a 27-23 win in Super Bowl XLIII against Arizona after a two-week layoff.
A good majority of the Pittsburgh roster is 2-0 SU in Super Bowls played after a two-week layoff. The Steelers won Super Bowl XL 21-10 over the Seattle Seahawks.
Green Bay has been even better on extra rest under head coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS coming off of a bye week under McCarthy. Those numbers include a 31-3 win at Minnesota this season after their bye week.
There is something to take away from the recent bye week trends of Pittsburgh and Green Bay, besides the simple fact that they are really good on extra rest. What sticks out the most about what the Steelers and Packers have been able to do with extra time to prepare is each team’s offense.
Under Mike Tomlin the Steelers have scored a combined 218 points in their seven games following a bye week. That is a remarkable average of 31 points per game and that includes such tough postseason opposition as Baltimore, Arizona and San Diego.
The Green Bay offense is not too shabby either, with extra time to prepare. Under McCarthy Green Bay has averaged 28.5 points per game in six games after a bye week.
If you believe that the extra week will make a big difference, then expect that difference to show up offensively and you can expect not only a great game but also a shootout in Cowboys Stadium.
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