American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 11/5/2013
The two nationally-ranked big dogs in the American Athletic Conference (No. 20 Louisville and No. 21 Central Florida) had the week off, but both Houston and Cincinnati kept the conference title race tight with key victories in Week 10 of the college football season. I had Temple +11.5 points on the road as my AAC pick of the week, and the Owls easily covered in a 23-20 loss to Rutgers. This 3-unit play raised my year to date total to +15 units with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System for a current profit of $1,410 on a $100 wager. My goal is to deliver a $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season, but let’s go for $2,000 since we are way ahead!
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 11 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Friday, Nov. 8
No. 20 Louisville Cardinals (-28) vs. Connecticut Huskies
Total Line: 49
Louisville went into last week’s bye with an overall record of 7-1 straight up, but it is just 4-4 against the spread this year. The total has stayed “under” in six of its first eight games. Much of the focus for the Cardinals remains on Heisman hopeful Teddy Bridgewater. He has thrown for 2,557 yards and 23 touchdowns while completing an impressive 73.7 percent of his 243 attempts.
It has been a rough go of it for the Huskies this season with a 0-7 SU start in which they have been outscored by an average of 18.7 points. They fell to 1-6 ATS with a 62-17 loss to UCF as 24-point road underdogs on Oct. 26. The total has gone “over” in three of their last four games. Connecticut has generated little or no offense to speak of with an average of just 16.4 points a game
Saturday, Nov. 9
SMU Mustangs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-9.5)
Total Line: 63.5
The Mustangs come into this AAC matchup with a 2-1 SU record in conference play that includes victories over Memphis and Temple in their last two games. They are 3-4 SU overall with a 2-5 record ATS. The total has gone over in six of their first seven games. SMU is ranked fifth in the nation in passing with 380.7 yards a game, but its defense is one of the worst in Division IA in points allowed (42.0).
Cincinnati remains in the conference title hunt at 3-1 SU on the year with games against both Houston and Louisville to close things out. Last Wednesday, the Bearcats rolled over Memphis 34-21 as two-point road favorites to improve to 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. The total went over the 44.5-point line in that game, and it has gone over in five of eight games this year. Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a defense that is ranked 11th in the country in points allowed (18.0).
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs. Memphis Tigers (-14.5)
Total Line: 47.5
The Skyhawks are 6-3 SU on the year and 4-2 in the Division IAA Ohio Valley Conference. In their only other game this season against a D-IA program, they lost to Boise State 63-14 as 34.5-point road underdogs. The total in that game went over the closing 57.5-point line.
Memphis is another team that has had a long season so far with a 1-6 SU record in its first seven games that includes a 0-4 record in the AAC. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS after failing to cover in their last three games, and the total has stayed under in five of the seven games. Memphis is allowing an average of 24.1 points a game, but its offense has not been able to keep pace with just 20.3 points a game.
AAC Pick of the Week
Houston Cougars vs. No. 21 Central Florida Knights (-10.5)
Total Line: 64
Houston has exceeded most people’s expectations this season with a 7-1 start both SU and ATS. The only setback of the year was a tough 47-46 loss to Boise State as a 10-point home underdog on Oct. 19. Since then, the Cougars have crushed Rutgers 49-14 as 5.5-point road underdogs and beaten South Florida 35-23 as 19-point favorites at home. The key matchup in the showdown against UCF will be Houston’s 18th-ranked passing game against the Knights’ 18th-ranked defense in points allowed (19.3).
Central Florida made its way into the BCS rankings by virtue of a 6-1 SU start that included a stunning 38-35 victory over then-No. 8 Louisville as a 14-point road underdog. The Knights are also 6-1 ATS, and the total has gone over in three of their last five games. While they are known for a shutdown defense, they also have an offense that can put points on the board in bunches. This unit is ranked 29th in the nation in passing yards and averaging 37 points a game.
Look for another shootout between these two given that the last four meetings have all gone over the total. While a play on the over this time around would be a solid play, I am taking Houston and the 10.5 points on the road as my AAC pick of the week.
3-Unit Play Take Houston (+10.5) over UCF (Saturday, Nov. 9, 7 p.m.)
Year to Date Record: 7-3 (+ 15 units +$1,410)
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