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2026 USC Trojans Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/10/2026

USC Trojans football predictions Jayden Maiava

When the USC Trojans football team hired Lincoln Riley, they thought they were getting a guy that could lead their program back to the glory days of the early 2000s. While the adjustment to the Big Ten has been anything but easy for any newcomer, USC has particularly struggled with the new level of competition the schedule brings. Last year it was a trip up loss to Illinois and a rather poor defense that kept them from the playoff conversation. This season, that defense is perhaps the biggest storyline to follow for the Trojans. USC looks to be deeper at key positions on defense, but Riley and company still have to put it all together to break into the playoff picture.

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USC Trojans Summary of Last Season

Last season, the Trojans had some highs and lows, but it was an overall let down for the program as they once again missed the playoffs under the leadership of Riley. They started the season on a four-game winning streak, scoring an average of 52.5 PPG during that stretch. Their season hit a major rollercoaster over the next three weeks as they lost to #23 Illinois by two, beat #15 Michigan by 18, and then lost again to #13 Notre Dame 34-24. They won their next three games before heading to Eugene to take on Oregon. Unfortunately, the Trojans would lose any playoff hope when they lost their third game as the Ducks took care of them 42-27. USC finished the regular season 9-3 but would go on to lose the Valero Alamo Bowl to TCU in overtime.

The USC offense was one of the best in the country last season. They averaged 465.5 YPG, which ranked eighth in the country, while also adding 35.8 PPG. Jayden Maiava led the team with 3,711 passing yards while completing 65.8% of his passes. He threw 24 touchdowns and added six more rushing touchdowns. King Miller led the ground attack with 972 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Waymond Jordan finished second with 576 rushing yards, and he also added another five rushing touchdowns. Makai Lemon was one of the best receivers in the country last season, leading the team with 1,156 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Ja’Kobi Lane finished with 745 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Lake McRee finished tied with Lane for the second most receiving touchdowns, while accumulating 450 receiving yards on 30 receptions.

As for the Trojans defense, they were not quite as strong as the offense. They allowed over 350 YPG, but they did hold opponents to just 23 PPG. Desman Stephens II led the team with 89 tackles, and he also forced a fumble. Eric Gentry finished second on the team with 76 tackles, three sacks, and recorded a team best five forced fumbles. Kameryn Crawford led the team with 5.5 sacks, while Bishop Fitzgerald led the team with five interceptions. Fitzgerald also added 51 tackles, three pass deflections, and a sack.

USC Trojans Football Key Additions/Losses

USC ranks 13th in the country in return production, with a pretty even split of returning production on either side of the ball. Despite the favorable returning numbers, they did lose a lot of quality talent from last year’s team. Lemon was the biggest loss after he was drafted 20th overall in the NFL Draft. Lane soon followed in the third round, while safety Kamari Ramsey was drafted in the fifth round. Defensive lineman Devan Thompkins left for Alabama, backup quarterback Husan Longstreet transferred to LSU, and tight end Walker Lyons moved on to BYU.

The departures were significant, but the coaching staff did bring in some talent. Wide receiver Terrell Anderson transfers in from North Carolina State, and the offense also added tight end Tucker Ashcraft from Wisconsin. The coaching staff attempted to sure up the defense with the additions of cornerback Jontez Williams (Iowa State), edge rusher Zuriah Fisher (Penn State), defensive lineman Alex VanSumeren (Michigan State), and linebacker Deven Bryant (Washington).

2026 USC Trojans Football Schedule Breakdown

The Trojans have a tough schedule this season, which means a playoff appearance is going to be quite the test. Their first four games should all be wins as they host the likes of San Jose State, Freson State, and ULL, and then they travel to Rutgers. However, to end the September schedule they have to host Oregon. After the Ducks they have to host Washington and then travel to Penn State and Wisconsin. The Trojans will likely have two losses by this point in the season which means they would have to be perfect down the stretch. Their final four games of the season include home games against Ohio State and Maryland, and road games against Indiana and UCLA. Unfortunately, it looks increasingly likely that Riley will once again be on the outside looking in this season.

2026 USC Trojans X-Factors/Big Questions

Can Gary Patterson improve this defense?

Yes. Patterson is a defensive guru, remember the 2014 TCU defense? Implementing his system will be an improvement for this squad. It also helps that they added some key transfers to boost that side of the ball. The Trojans struggled against the run last season, but Patterson’s 4-2-5 system at TCU was actually designed to suffocate the ground attack. Patterson had the top-rated defense in the country from 2008-2010 at TCU. There is a lot to like about the defensive improvements for this squad.

Will Lincoln Riley finally reach the playoffs with the Trojans?

No. The schedule is too hard. The most likely way that the Trojans reach the playoffs this season is by winning the Big Ten, which means picking up at least two wins against the likes of Oregon, Ohio State, or Indiana. They also have to take on Washington, travel to Penn State, and clash with a much improved UCLA team. USC may be in the conversation early, but they will likely have two losses before late October where they meet Ohio State, and then battle against Indiana two weeks later.

2026 USC Trojans Football Notable Odds:

National Championship: +3500

Big Ten Champion: +1300

Heisman Winner- Jayden Maiava: +2500

Predicted Win Total: 8.5 Games

2026 USC Trojans Football Predictions:

While the Trojans will miss the playoffs, they do have a nine-win ceiling. However, I do think eight wins is much more likely for Riley’s squad. They will pick up losses against the conference’s three best teams in Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana and it would be hard to forecast a perfect record against the likes of Penn State, UCLA, and Washington. The Trojans will be one of the most talented teams to miss the playoffs, but they just do not have enough going their way to get over the playoff hump and play for a national title. Take the under on the win total, and a flier on Maiava to win the Heisman is not a bad idea given the high volume of Riley’s offense.

Prediction: Under 8.5 Wins, -138

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