NBA Betting: Concepts to Think About Before Placing a Wager
by George Monroy - 3/8/2013
Sports bettors have a plethora of rituals and routines they use when deciding on what teams to bet. Some rituals are based on a hope and a prayer — throwing darts at a board or having your daughter choose. While others are much more analytical and involve complicated math and weather patterns in the Midwest. Most bettors will swear by their tried-and-true methods of picking games, but the best way to analyze a matchup prior to making a wager probably lies somewhere in between either extreme.
Since the majority of sports bettors are neither overly superstitious nor overly mathematical, let’s go over a few simple concepts to think about before placing a NBA wager.
ATS Record: Many gamblers do not make the distinction between ATS and SU records, but, in the gambling world, there is a huge difference. The best teams in the NBA are not necessarily the teams that cover the most spreads, and the worst teams in the league are not necessarily the teams that cover the least.
When you are looking into a team’s record, do not even bother to look at their SU or normal record — it can be misleading. The best analysis you can make is by only taking gambling into account. Look at ATS records as your starting point for which teams to wager on.
Schedule: Knowing a team’s schedule can really help a sports bettor out during their pre-wager analysis. Gregg Popovich, coach for the Spurs, loves to rest players during rough stretches of the season and will frequently not play a couple of his stars on the second night of a back-to-back. Knowing a team’s schedule can really give you a leg up in your handicapping scheme. You can also find excellent value wagering on totals after a team has played multiple games in only a few nights span,
Spread: There is an excellent ATS database online right here on this site (check the handicapping matchup resources on the right sidebar) that will give you extensive information on how a team does against various spreads. Of course, doing this type of research is a bit time consuming, but it will have a positive impact on your bankroll. Some teams do great against large spreads, other teams cover more often on the second night of a back-to-back, and others cover small spreads with relative ease. Knowing your teams and which spreads they are most comfortable with will only benefit you as a gambler.
Last 10: trends can be a gamblers best friend. Simply looking at a team’s stats and ATS records takes the whole season into account and does not specify how they are doing lately. But a bettor can easily find out how a team is doing against the spread over the last 10 games in order to get a clearer picture as to how they are playing at the moment.
Odds: Knowing and understanding the odds is of the utmost importance for a sports bettor hoping to stay in the black at the end of the year. Simply betting games with a -110 vig as opposed to a -105 can be the difference between being a winning and losing player. If you can find a better price at another sportsbook it would be beneficial to take advantage of the lower vig.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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