2013 Super Bowl Props to Avoid
by Aaron Smith - 1/29/2013
No event can match the popularity of the Super Bowl. Not surprisingly, the Super Bowl is also the most popular sporting event of the year for bettors to wager on. As the popularity of the Super Bowl has grown, the books have found that one of the best ways to attract even more wagering action on Super Bowl Sunday is to release a vast array of Super Bowl prop bets. NFL prop bets have become fairly popular throughout the season, but they take on a whole new level of popularity at the Super Bowl.
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Today, you can find a prop bet wagering opportunity on just about anything related to Super Bowl weekend. I’m not here to say that all prop bets are a waste of money. In fact, I believe the wise bettor can find some great value on certain prop bets. Still, with each passing year a bettor must be more selective due to the wacky prop bet options that are out there. With each wager, a bettor should consider what kind of an edge they have on the books. If you don’t have a real edge, then betting on that particular prop bet probably isn’t a good idea. Let’s take a look at some prop bets you should avoid this year.
It’s one of the most popular, and it is the poster child for props that should be avoided. It never ceases to amaze me how many bettors are willing to take a chance on whether the coin toss will land on heads or tails. This is the ultimate definition of 50/50 bet, and any juice you pay makes it not worth your time or money. There are plenty of books out there listing this one for at least -105 on both sides, which is a complete waste of your money. Do yourself a favor and spend some more time handicapping the game and completely avoid the coin toss prop bets.
Super Bowl Prop to Avoid: Attire of Both Coaches
As you can imagine, there are tons of props out there regarding the Harbaugh brothers this year. One of the stranger prop bets available is whether both coaches will be wearing hats during the game. BetOnline lists “Yes” as a huge favorite at -1,000. History shows that Jim has been wearing a hat every week for his entire time with the 49ers, but John has been seen without a hat a few times while leading the Ravens. What is your edge on this one? Unless you personally know the Harbaughs, it is hard to imagine anyone knowing what they are wearing for Super Bowl 47.
Super Bowl Prop to Avoid: Alicia Keys Adds New Word to “National Anthem”
5Dimes has a new prop bet up for this year on whether Alicia Keys will add a new word of some kind to the “National Anthem.” “No” was listed as a rather small favorite (-280) when the line was first posted, but it has since been steamed up to -530. My first thought was why would someone add a new word to the song, but you never know what will happen in a huge event like this. Isn’t Christina Aguilera’s botched delivery still fresh in your mind? This is one of those bets where there could be controversy, and that is never a good thing when wagering your money.
Super Bowl Prop to Avoid: First Pass Complete or Incomplete
Here’s an actual game prop that I don’t believe has any value. TopBet has prop bet available for both Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick’s first pass. The lines are identical for both quarterbacks. The favorite is “complete” at -180, while first pass to be “incomplete or intercepted” sits at +150. Both of these quarterbacks have been playing very well of late, but neither has played on the biggest stage before. Will they keep their success rolling or will the nerves of the game make them start off slowly? I don’t think this is something that a bettor should be trying to handicap. There just isn’t value in trying to handicap what will happen on one play.
Super Bowl Prop to Avoid: Postgame Handshake/Hug Length
Yet another in the line of Harbaugh prop bets is the postgame handshake/hug prop bet available at several books in Las Vegas. The oddsmakers have decided to put the “over/under” for the length of the postgame handshake/hug length at 7.5 seconds. That seems like an awfully long period of time, but they are brothers after all. The No. 1 reason I would never advocate betting on something like this: it screams of a disputed wager waiting to happen. One book may say it was seven seconds while another said it was eight seconds. Stick with wagers where there is a clear winner and loser.
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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