Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 2
by Aaron Smith - 9/5/2013
It’s time for the second installment of the mid-major betting report. For this year’s mid-major betting report, I am following the UNLV Rebels. The Rebels extended their road losing streak to 23 games with a 51-23 loss at Minnesota in Week 1. That certainly wasn’t the way Bobby Hauck wanted this season to get going. Most people won’t be paying much attention to the Rebels this year, but I’ll be following them every step of the way. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Twitter feeds, beat writers, and press conferences from the program. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
Last Thursday’s 51-23 loss at Minnesota was certainly very disappointing, but if you look deeper inside the numbers there are some reasons to be optimistic if you are a Rebels fan. UNLV actually outgained the Golden Gophers 419 yards to 320 yards. The Rebels allowed only 99 yards through the air.
Still, if you lose 51-23 against a Minnesota team that isn’t very good, you made some major mistakes. Marcus Jones ran back the second-half kickoff for a 98-yard touchdown return for Minnesota. A few minutes later, Minnesota blocked a UNLV field goal attempt and ran it back 51 yards for a touchdown. At this point, the rout was on. No doubt special teams play must get better from the Rebels if they are going to be competitive in 2013.
Nick Sherry threw for 226 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. Sherry had 50 pass attempts in last week’s game, so throwing for 226 yards wasn’t all that impressive. Minnesota averaged 5.8 yards per carry, so the UNLV rushing defense was still a major problem. My selection on the “under” 51.5 was a loser last week.
Notes of Interest
-UNLV’s 419 yards of total offense last week against Minnesota were the most ever by a Rebels team on the road against a Big Ten opponent.
-Shaquille Murray-Lawrence may have the longest name in school history, but it didn’t take him long to make his mark on the program! Murray-Lawrence carried the ball just four times in last week’s game, but he finished with 108 yards on the ground. He had carries of zero, two, 42, and 64 yards.
-The Arizona Wildcats pitched a shutout last week, but it should be noted that their 35-0 win did come over FCS school Northern Arizona. The Wildcats defense was led by Tra’Mayne Bondurant, who picked off two passes and returned one for a touchdown. Bondurant was named the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week.
-The UNLV Rebels ran 85 offensive plays last week against Minnesota. The Rebels averaged about 70 plays per game last year, so it looks like new offensive coordinator Timm Rosenbach does have this team devoted to moving more quickly on offense.
-Arizona is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.
-The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a Mountain West opponent.
-UNLV is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.
-The Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record.
-The “over” is 8-2 in Arizona’s last 10 games overall.
Arizona vs. UNLV College Football Odds
The UNLV Rebels opened as 13.5-point home underdogs at 5Dimes on Sunday night. Other books opened the spread at 11 or 10.5 later that night. The line actually moved down to UNLV +10, but it has since pushed back up to UNLV +10.5 at almost every major book. The posted total opened at 61 points, and it currently sits at 60.5 at some books and 61 at some others.
Arizona vs. UNLV College Football Picks
The scoreboard looked really ugly in last week’s game, but there were some positive signs for the Rebels. UNLV has been much better at home in the last few years, and Arizona hasn’t been very good away from home. The Rebels are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games as an underdog. Arizona is just 3-8-1 ATS over the last 10 years as a favorite on the road. Arizona is the better team, but grabbing the 10.5 points looks like the best value here.
The pick for me in this matchup is one unit on the UNLV Rebels +10.5 Keep an eye out for next week’s mid-major betting report which will preview the Rebels home game against Central Michigan from the MAC.
Pick: #378- Take UNLV +10.5 for 1 Unit (Saturday Sept. 7, 10:30 p.m. EST)
Season Results: 0 Wins 1 Losses (-1.1 Units)
Doc’s Sports has been a leader in college football handicapping for more than four decades, and we are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks from Doc’s Sports or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Click here to get your no-obligation $60 in picks now.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Nov. 14-15
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Oct. 31-Nov. 2
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Oct. 24-25
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 8 Opening Line Report and Picks