Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 7
by Aaron Smith - 10/10/2013
It’s time for sixth edition of the weekly college football mid-major betting report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. UNLV broke their brutal 23-game road losing streak in their last game with a 56-42 win at New Mexico. The Rebels have now won three consecutive games. They had a bye week last week. I’ll be keeping a close eye on press conferences from the program, beat writers, as well as Twitter feeds all season long. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
UNLV was off last weekend, but they did have a big win two weeks ago at New Mexico. There are tons of positives as well as negatives to take away from last week’s game for UNLV, but by breaking their long-term road losing streak the Rebels did take an important step last weekend. It wasn’t pretty at times, but it counts as a win in the win/loss column, and that is the most important thing for this team. New Mexico gained 581 yards and the Rebels gained 568 yards. Essentially, there was no defense in the game. That was good news for our 5-unit selection on the “over” in this contest. The over actually cashed in during the second quarter! The smaller 2-unit play on New Mexico +3 was a loser.
New Mexico ran for 497 yards on the ground in this game. The Lobos had 400 rushing yards at halftime! On the other side, UNLV threw for 320 yards and ran for 248 more. That balanced offense was key in UNLV coming up with the win. Caleb Herring continued his recent impressive play with four touchdowns and no picks. Tim Cornett ran for 179 yards and three touchdowns. The Rebels won the turnover battle, which is very important in a game like this. UNLV’s defense looked awful in the first half, but they didn’t allow New Mexico past the 50-yard line in the fourth quarter. It’s nice to see the Rebels finishing the game strong.
Notes of Interest
-Taylor Bern, UNLV beat writer for the Las Vegas Sun, took a look at how the UNLV Rebels have gone on a three-game winning streak. What has been the biggest driver of the team’s recent success? UNLV has been playing mistake-free football. The Rebels went nine straight quarters without committing a penalty between the second quarter of their Central Michigan win and the fourth quarter of their win at New Mexico. Nine quarters in a row without an enforced penalty is quite a streak! How about the play of Caleb Herring? Bern pointed out that Herring hasn’t turned the ball over since taking over at the quarterback spot against Central Michigan. Herring’s leadership has been amazing for the Rebels’ offense.
-Junior receiver Marcus Sullivan is back in the lineup for the UNLV Rebels after missing the first few games of the year, and he makes this Rebels offense much more dangerous. UNLV saw what he can do right away when he accounted for 144 offensive yards in the win over New Mexico.
-The 56 points that UNLV scored in their win over New Mexico was the most points by a UNLV team since the Rebels beat New Mexico State 58-42 in 1986.
-Hawaii is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games during the month of October.
-UNLV is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games against a team with a losing record.
-The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
-The over is 5-1 in UNLV’s last six games.
Hawaii vs. UNLV College Football Odds
UNLV opened as a seven-point home favorite in this game. The line quickly moved up as money came in on the Rebels. UNLV was actually favored by ten points for a while before Hawaii money came back in to get the spread to a current level of nine points. The posted total opened at 54.5 and has drifted up to 55.5.
Hawaii vs. UNLV College Football Picks
Hawaii comes into this game with an 0-5 record. UNLV has a chance for a four-game winning streak for the first time in 30 years. I like the Rebels chances of winning this game, but I don’t like the fact that they have to win by double-digits.
I see the most opportunity here with the over. Hawaii is giving up 35 points per game, and UNLV is allowing 36 points per contest. The Hawaii offense has been much better in the last two weeks, and Herring has really sparked the Rebels offense. This number looks too low to me. I’ll make a two-unit play here on over 55.5
Pick: #201- Take Hawaii/UNLV over 55.5 for 2 Units
Season Results: 1 Win 4 Losses (-0.5 Units)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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