Belmont Stakes Betting Strategy and Preview
by CarbonSports - 6/5/2014
The final leg of the Triple Crown is upon us and for the first time since 2008 we've got a horse in California Chrome who has a chance to win the Triple Crown. No horse has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed did it in 1978 and there have been 12 failed tries since then. One of those 12 tries was back in 2012 when I'll Have Another won the Derby and the Preakness but did not enter the Belmont and racing fans had to wait another year for some other horse to give it a go. Well California Chrome is that horse this year and he has looked dominant so far in his first two wins. However, going against a strong history like all of those failed attempts it not something I'm interested in doing as the Belmont Stakes has been a graveyard for Triple Crown attempts during the last 36 years.
Belmont Stakes Bet: Will California Chrome win the Belmont? Play: No (-110)
As the overwhelming favorite to win, California Chrome (-120) is going to get plenty of attention from bettors hoping to see a Triple Crown winner. But winning the Belmont is so hard to do because of it's length - the longest in Thoroughbred racing in the USA. Pressure can do funny things to horses and jockeys alike, hence why we haven't seen a Triple Crown winner in nearly 40 years.
This play gives you 10 of 11 horses to cheer for and you aren't even paying much juice because Chrome is such a prohibitive favorite. History is clearly on your side and we only have to look back to 2008 - the last time a horse won the first two races and competed in the Belmont - to see a clearly dominant horse (Big Brown) look fatigued and overmatched at the Belmont. Big Brown didn't even finish the race that day with the Triple Crown on the line.
Everyone will point to those dominating wins by California Chrome the last month and believe that this horse can't be beat, but it's not the first time we've seen a horse look that good prior to the Belmont and lose and it won't be the last.
Belmont Stakes Bet: Winner: Tonalist +800
This horse is one of three at +800 as the next favorites behind California Chrome (-120) and has a very experienced jockey in Joel Rosario on the saddle. Rosario has never won the Belmont but he finished third in last year's race on the pre-race favorite Orb and has to prefer being the 'hunter' rather than the hunted this time around.
Tonalist is also a horse that has had a full month of rest since its last race; one that was won rather easily by this horse. Tonalist is also peaking at the right time to be a legitimate contender to dethrone Chrome's Triple Crown attempt and at +800 the value is definitely there.
Finally, with my strong feeling that another Triple Crown attempt goes by the wayside, I'm not opposed to putting 1/10th of a unit on each of the other horses to win this race. At $10 a horse you would be down $100 should Chrome come out and win the Triple Crown, and also be down a total of $20 should Wicked Strong (+800), Ride On Curlin (+800), or Tonalist (+800) win. On the surface that doesn't look enticing given that if one of four horses come out on top you are down money, but if one of the other seven horses manage to get to the finish line first you are up anywhere from Commanding Curve (+1200) $30 to Matuszak (+5000) $410. Back in 2008 when Big Brown was going for the Triple Crown, it was Da'Tara who won and was 40-1 and higher. Longshots do come in on this race so don't get completely caught up with the top horses.
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