College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 12/22/2014
Week 2 of the schedule spot fade plays is ready to go. There were four recommended plays on the first week of this article, but only three of the games were lined, so those are the three we have results form. It was 2-1 first week for the plays. Old Dominion was a fortunate cover to start the week last week. The fade of Clemson with the play on South Carolina worked very well as the Gamecocks rolled in that one. Oklahoma lost to Washington for the lone loser of last week's plays.
Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
It's important to point out that there are far fewer games to pick from this week with the smaller schedule due to the holiday break. Moving forward, most weeks we will have more plays than we do this week.
Let's take a look at this week's schedule spot fade plays.
Play #1- Play on Georgia Tech +6 (Fade Dayton) on Tuesday, December 23
Dayton's Archie Miller is doing a tremendous job with this Flyers basketball program. The run to the Elite Eight last year was amazing. After a Cinderella run like that one through March Madness, though, it's easy for a team to get overrated the following year. I think that has happened with Dayton. What makes this a tough scheduling spot for Dayton? Miller just kicked both Devon Scott and Jalen Robinson off the team for off-the-court problems. Scott was the starting center for the team, and Robinson was the backup big man. Miller made the right move in the long run, but it leaves his team in a difficult spot in the short term. Dayton is left with only eight scholarship players on the roster. None of them are taller than 6-foot-6! Georgia Tech's strength is on the glass, where they have been outrebounding their opponent on a consistent basis. Dayton would have had a big adjustment period no matter who they were playing against, but this is a particularly bad matchup for the Flyers. One other interesting note for this game. Georgia Tech Coach Brian Gregory will return to Dayton to take on the team he coached from 2004 through 2011. Bad spot here for the home team. I think this one stays close all the way.
Play #2- Play on North Carolina (Fade UAB) on Saturday, December 27
The UAB Blazers expected to have a star leading the way this year in the form of Chad Frazier. Frazier was the team's leading scorer, and he was going to be the go-to man, but he had all sorts of problems off the court this offseason. He eventually asked for a release from UAB and decided to go pro. Without Frazier, UAB is loaded with question marks and inexperience on this year's roster. UAB Coach Jerod Haase admitted as much before the season. Haase said, "There are more questions than answers." UAB has started the season 4-7, and the Blazers have a couple ugly losses against Louisiana Monroe and South Florida. Most interesting to me, though, is the fact that UAB didn't play a road game through their first 11 games of the season. They play on the road at Chattanooga on Monday night. That isn't exactly the type of game that gets you prepared for a road battle with the North Carolina Tar Heels. An inexperienced group of guys that hasn't faced a tough environment this year. It sounds like a blowout waiting to happen to me. What makes this spot even better? UAB pulled off a major upset at home against North Carolina last year, so the Tar Heels will be out for revenge. The Tar Heels are far better than last year, and UAB isn't even close to as good as they were last season. The line will be big here, but I think North Carolina runs away with this game.
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 2 Wins 1 Loss (+$90)
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