College Football Betting Trends that Emerged in Week 4
by George Monroy - 9/22/2014
The marquee schools in the nation are beginning to lose games. LSU was the latest national title contender to add a loss to its resume after Saturday's crushing 34-29 defeat to Mississippi St. There are still 14 undefeated teams left in the Top 25, with Florida St, Oregon, Alabama, Oklahoma and Auburn still leading the way. The biggest surprise of the early part of the season has been Texas A&M's dominant play over its first four games. The team is coming off a 52-point victory over SMU and wasted no time forgetting about the "Johnny Football" era after last season's quarterback Johnny Manziel took his talents to the NFL. Let's take a closer look at Week 4 of the college football season and some of the trends that emerged over the weekend.
Top 5 Get Challenged
The Top 5 schools in the nation had another tough week as they were able to cover only two spreads. Every team except Alabama was involved in a tough game that stayed close until the very end. Overall, the Top 5 schools ended the week with a 2-3 ATS record and are sitting on a 7-11 ATS mark through the early part of the season. The biggest change over the past few weeks is the fact that most teams are heading into the tougher portions of their schedule, and the spreads are getting smaller and smaller every game. During Week 2 four of the five Top 5 spreads were lines of 23 points or higher. This week the largest spread is 23 points.
No. 1 Florida State : favored by 9.5, won by six
No. 2 Oregon : favored by 23, won by seven
No. 3 Alabama : favored by 14, won by 21
No. 4 Oklahoma : favored by 7.5 won by 12
No. 5 Auburn : favored by seven, won by six
Record : 2-3 ATS; Overall: 7-11 ATS
Large Favorites Struggle Again
Large 30-point-or-more favorites continued to struggle for the second straight week. On Saturday there were three such favorites, and only Michigan State managed to cover its 45.5-point spread. Cincinnati barely escaped with a seven-point win against a 30-point line. Over the last two weeks large favorites are sitting on a 3-6-1 ATS record after starting off the season hot by producing a 6-3 ATS mark
No. 11 Michigan St : favored by 45.5, won by 59
Washington : favored by 35, won by 31
Cincinnati : favored by 30, won by 7
Most teams are falling into a solid groove by now, and those large 30-point lines may be too big of a number to give up. Miami Ohio has faced consecutive 30-points spreads and has easily covered both. Now may be the time to start taking the points on a solid underdog receiving more than four touchdowns worth of points.
Florida State Still Can't Cover
Perhaps the most shocking trend during the early part of the year is the fact that the No. 1-ranked Seminoles still cannot cover a spread. The squad is 0-3 ATS on the year against 18-, 58.5- and 9.5-point lines. Last season Florida State produced an 11-2 ATS mark during the regular season but now is in the middle of a four-game ATS losing streaking dating back to the National Championship Game against Auburn.
Of course, that trend will not last forever, and the defending National Champions are bound to cover a spreads over the next few weeks. If you haven't wagered on the team so far this season, now is a great time to catch the squad breaking out of its ATS slump and covering sometime soon.
Records : Top 5: 7-11 ATS; Top 10: 14-17-1 ATS; Large Favorites: 9-9-1
Doc's Sports has been a leader in college football handicapping for more than four decades, and we are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks from Doc's Sports or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Click here to get your no-obligation $60 in picks now. Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.
Read more articles by George Monroy
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- Bowl Game Schedule - College Football Bowl Schedules for 2019-2020
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Big Bowl Game Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Bowl Game Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Championship Week Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Dec. 12-13
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Nov. 14-15