College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 11
by Aaron Smith - 11/4/2014
Week 11 of the college football mid-major betting report is here. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. The goal of this weekly article is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the top bettors in the world use. There are 128 FBS level teams in college football, so specialization is even more relevant in this sport.
I'm following the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference in every way possible this season. Akron is a program on the rise under Coach Terry Bowden. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Note that this report is here early this week, and it will be here early the next few weeks as well. Akron plays the rest of their regular season games on Tuesday night as part of the Mid-American Conference weeknight showcase games on ESPN and ESPN2.
Through the first three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590.
Akron lost their most recent game against Ball State by a final of 35-21. The Zips led 21-13 at halftime of that game but couldn't score at all in the second half. Ball State put up 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away and win. The Cardinals big fourth quarter also made the 1-Unit play on the 'under' a loser.
Tommy Woodson ended up playing all game, which was a surprise because it seemed like Kyle Pohl was going to be ready to go. Woodson started the game off well, but eventually his poor mistakes really ended up costing the team in a big way. After last game, Coach Bowden said Woodson needed to make better decisions because he got away with a lot of throws that could have been intercepted. Woodson didn't make those corrections yet, and he didn't get away with them this time. Akron also lost a fumble in their loss to Ball State. In all, the Zips turned the ball over five times, while Ball State had no turnovers. You simply can't win football games when you have a -5 turnover margin. The Zips have lost two straight road games where they were favored.
Notes of Interest
-George Thomas, Akron Zips beat writer at the Akron Beacon Journal, wrote about the Zips new turnover problem. Through the first six games of the season, Akron had a turnover margin of +7. In the last two games alone, the Zips have a turnover margin of -6. Coach Bowden said, "I don't think the effort changed. I don't think their attitude changed. The turnovers changed." It's important to note that Akron didn't turn the ball over at all in the first half of their loss to Ball State. Woodson threw four interceptions all in the second half, and the Zips had a muffed punt for their other turnover.
-The good news for Akron is they still control their own destiny in the MAC East. Akron plays Bowling Green on Tuesday night, and the Falcons lead the East Division with a 3-1 record so far this year. If Akron is able to win this contest, the Zips will tie for the lead and have the inside track to eventually play for the MAC Championship in Detroit.
-Pohl is expected to start in this game. Bowden said this week that the Zips goal is to have a relatively conservative offensive game plan. He wants the Zips to be able to win this game with their defense and their ball control. The focus is on cutting out the turnovers. Akron's defense ranks first in the MAC in points allowed per game. The Zips defense is only allowing 20.2 points per game.
-Bowling Green had the best defense in the MAC last year, but this year they have the worst defense in the MAC. The Falcons defense is giving up 543 yards and 36.5 points per game. Their offense, which averages 33.6 points per game, has allowed them to win high-scoring contests.
-Bowling Green comes into this one having not played since Oct. 18. It's hard to say whether that will help or hurt the Falcons, but it is very rare to see any team go more than two weeks without playing a game.
-Bowling Green is 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 road games.
-Akron is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
-Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
-The under is 21-6 in Akron's last 27 games overall.
-The under is 15-6 in Bowling Green's last 21 conference games.
Bowling Green vs. Akron College Football Odds
Akron opened as five-point home favorites in this key MAC East showdown. Money quickly came in on the Zips and bumped the line up to Akron -7, but there has been some pushback now, and the Zips are currently favored by 6.5. The posted total here opened at 56 points and has been bet up to 58.
Bowling Green vs. Akron College Football Picks
Akron's turnover problems were largely because a freshman quarterback was at the helm. I expect things to get better with the veteran Pohl back under center. Almost everyone has moved the ball at will against this Bowling Green defense. The Falcons offense is solid, but Akron's defense has stepped up big numerous times this year. It looks like the sharp money is backing the Zips, and I'm going to take them here as well. Akron needs this game in a big way, and I think we see a good effort from the Zips. This week's selection is a 2-Unit play on Akron -6.5.
Pick: #102- Take Akron -6.5 for 2 Units
Season Results: 3 Wins 5 Losses ($-490)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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