College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 12
by Aaron Smith - 11/10/2014
It's time for Week 12 of the college football mid-major betting report. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. The goal of this weekly article is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the top bettors in the world use. There are 128 FBS level teams in college football, so specialization is obviously very relevant here.
I'm following the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference in every way possible this season. Akron is a program on the rise under Coach Terry Bowden. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Note that this report is here early this week, and it will be here early the next few weeks as well. Akron plays the rest of their regular season games on Tuesday night as part of the Mid-American Conference weeknight showcase games on ESPN and ESPN2.
Through the first three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590.
After showing a lot of promise early in the season, the Akron Zips have definitely been disappointing in recent weeks. Last week's performance at home against Bowling Green was definitely the worst performance of the year for the Zips. Akron was beaten 27-10 on their home field in a game where they were playing with the chance to control their own destiny in the MAC East. Akron was great at taking care of the ball early in the season, but their turnover woes have been the reason for their current three-game losing streak. The Zips turned the ball over five times in last week's loss to the Falcons.
The team hoped to get a boost from Kyle Pohl's return to the starting lineup at quarterback, but Pohl had a poor game and threw three picks and no touchdowns. He did throw for 304 yards, but it took a whopping 62 passing attempts to get to that. That's primarily because the running game couldn't get anything going. Akron rushed for only 94 yards last week. Bowling Green didn't come with particularly impressive rushing numbers, but the Falcons ran for 219 yards on Akron last week.
Last week's 2-Unit play on Akron was a loser. I expected the Zips to come out ready to make a statement, but instead they continued their recent run of playing sloppy football.
Notes of Interest
-Elton Alexander of The Plain Dealer wrote about Akron's need to get back on track to become bowl eligible. While the Zips hopes of a MAC title are now gone, they still can pick up a couple more wins and become bowl eligible. Alexander also said that the season-long question surrounding the Zips is why they seems to refuse to run the football despite having a pair of veteran tailbacks in Chisholm and Hundley. He pointed out that Bowling Green successfully tamed down their passing attack and kept it on the ground in last week's poor weather conditions, while Akron continued to air it out constantly.
-Buffalo is the opponent for Akron this week, and the Bulls are currently on a four-game losing streak themselves. Buffalo has an interim coach after Jeff Quinn was fired in the middle of the season. Anthone Taylor leads the team with 988 rushing yards on the season. The Bulls rushing defense hasn't been good this year. They have allowed 189 yards per game on the ground. Will Akron be able to take advantage?
-The weather will be an issue in an Akron game for a second straight week. The weather in Buffalo calls for winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour as well as rain showers and falling temperatures. The temperature could be in the upper 30s by the end of the game.
-Akron is 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a losing record.
-The Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against Buffalo.
-Buffalo is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
-The Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing road record.
-The 'under' is 13-3 in Akron's last 16 road games.
-The under is 13-6 in the Bulls last 19 conference games.
-The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
Akron vs. Buffalo College Football Odds
Akron opened as a slight 2.5-point road favorite in this game, and the line has slowly shifted even more in the direction of the Zips. Akron is currently a 3.5-point favorite here. The posted total opened at 51.5 points and has been bet down to 50.5 points.
Akron vs. Buffalo College Football Picks
With weather as a major factor here, I like this one to be lower scoring than expected. The Bulls are likely to keep it on the ground a lot, and despite their poor performance against the run last week, Akron has actually been the best in the MAC at stopping the run. Akron's offense is really struggling now, and the high winds and rain are unlikely to help. This week's selection is a 3-Unit play on the under.
Pick: #301- Take Akron/Buffalo UNDER 50.5 for Three Units
Season Results: 3 Wins 6 Losses ($-710)
Doc's Sports wants you to try out one of their expert college football handicappers, and they are now offering new clients a free $60 in credit that they can use for any handicapper on Doc's Advisory Board. This takes less than two minutes to sign up, and there is no credit card needed and no salesmen to deal with. Get your free college football picks now. Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Sept. 12-13
- 49th-Year Anniversary - Football Picks Special
- Potential College Football Start Options During Covid-19 Pandemic
- 2020 Heisman Trophy Predictions
- National Championship Game Picks for Clemson vs. LSU
- Strong Underdogs for Bowl Game Betting: Possible Moneyline Paydays
- Expert College Bowl Game Handicapping: Coaching Uncertainty
- NCAA Bowl Game Wagering: Toughest Games to Handicap
- College Bowl Game Betting Advice: Biggest Mismatches
- NCAA Football Betting Odds: Championship Week Line Movements & Last-Minute News