College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 6
by Aaron Smith - 10/1/2014
It's time for Week 5 of the college football mid-major betting report. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. What's the goal of this article? The goal is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the best bettors in the world use. Since there are so many teams in college football, specialization is particularly relevant in this area.
I'm following the Akron Zips in every way possible this season. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Through three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590. Akron loaded up their nonconference schedule this year, but now they will head into Mid-American Conference play.
Last week's game was the best game of the year for the Zips, and it was also the best so far this season for the mid-major betting report's selections. Akron beat the Pittsburgh Panthers 21-10 despite going into the game as a nearly three-touchdown underdog. The "under" was the selection at the end of last week's report, and it coasted to a comfortable win. Akron's run defense, which was torched a week earlier by Marshall, was amazing in last week's win against Pittsburgh. The Panthers pride themselves on running the football, and James Conner went into last week's game as the leading rusher in the nation. After the game, Conner said "It looked like there were 30 guys in the box." Clearly, the Akron Zips defenders were at their best last weekend. Pitt averaged 304.5 rushing yards per game going into last week's game. They finished with 129 yards last week on 40 attempts.
Akron's coaching staff deserves a ton of praise for last week's performance as well. Coach Bowden and the defensive coaches knew that Tyler Boyd and Conner are the Panthers main guys on offense, and they prepared an excellent game plan to shut them down. It turns out Pittsburgh couldn't find enough other playmakers. It wasn't because the Panthers weren't trying. Pitt even burned freshman wide receiver Adonis' Jennings redshirt last week to try to provide a spark.
Conor Hundley was the star for the Akron offense. Hundley ran it 19 times for 148 yards (7.8 yards per carry). This was the first time we've seen Akron have that kind of success in the run game.
Last week's 2-Unit selection on the under was a winner.
Notes of Interest
-Eastern Michigan, Akron's opponent this week, is being outgained by 283 yards per game. The Eagles have only 331 passing yards on 104 attempts. That is 3.18 yards per attempt, which is among the worst you will ever see.
-Kyle Pohl, the Zips starting quarterback, was pulled after the third possession of last week's game at Pittsburgh. Coach Terry Bowden said after the game it was to try to provide a spark for the Zips offense. Backup Tommy Woodson has played well in limited action this year. George Thomas, beat writer for the Akron Beacon Journal, wrote an interesting piece this week about Bowden making it completely evident to everyone on the team that no one is immune to increased competition for playing time. Pohl is considered a team leader, but the fact that Bowden would bench him shows everyone on this team they are being held to a high standard.
-Those who know the game well will tell you that the field position battle is essential in every football game. Akron has a head start in that battle every game thanks to punter Zach Paul. Paul is averaging an amazing 46.3 yards per punt this year.
-Eastern Michigan is 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games.
-The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
-Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS in their last five games at Akron.
-The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
-Akron is 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
Eastern Michigan vs. Akron College Football Odds
Akron opened as a 21-point home favorite in this game. Money has come in on the Zips, and they are now a 23-point favorite at most books. The posted total in this one was opened at 49.5 points, and it has edged up to 50 points.
Eastern Michigan vs. Akron College Football Picks
Eastern Michigan has played some very good teams this year, so it's possible they aren't quite as bad as they have looked. However, this Eagles team is pretty bad. The money coming in on Akron makes sense to me, but I can't back the Zips as a more-than-three-touchdown favorite. They are coming off a huge road win, and this is a bit of a letdown spot. I'm interested in the under in this game. Akron's defense should dominate the Eagles offense here, and the Zips have typically not been a team that runs up the score with Bowden as their head coach. A 2-Unit play on the under is this week's selection.
Pick: #357- Take Eastern Michigan/Akron UNDER 50 for Two Units
Season Results: 1 Wins 2 Losses ($-350)
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