Free College Football Pick for Friday Toledo vs. Cincinnati
by CarbonSports - 9/8/2014
Game: Toledo Rockets (+11.5) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-11.5)
In an odd scheduling quirk, this is actually the Bearcats first game of the season and you'd better believe they've been chomping at the bit to get on the field and get their season going. Cincinnati has spent two weeks watching everyone else hit the field while they've been stuck playing against one another the entire time and odds makers expect that extra rest will help the Bearcats win by double digits here.
Toledo was a popular underdog pick this past week as small home dogs against Missouri, but the Rockets got off to a horrible start (down 28-7 at half) and could never recover. Defensively the Rockets couldn't stop anything Missouri was throwing at them as the Tigers went off for 502 yards on the day and used a balanced attack to keep the Rockets off balance. Cincinnati was at home watching that game and scouting out how to attack that same defense, and with a balanced attack themselves, I expect the Bearcats offense to have plenty of success in this one.
Wehn you have a team like Cincinnati that has had plenty of rest and actually has yet to play, rust is always an issue and that might have some looking to take the points with Toledo here. The thinking there would be that the Rockets just had an all-around bad game against Missouri and are a much better team than they showed. I do believe that Toledo is a lot better than what they showed against Missouri, but Cincinnati is no slouch of a team either and if the Rockets are still hanging their heads about the blowout loss, this one could get ugly in a hurry as well.
Tommy Tuberville's Bearcats squad won't let rust be an issue here and the home field advantage they typically enjoy will be tested. Cincinnati's schedule is what it is because they will be playing their home games at the Cincinnati Bengals home stadium this year with their new field under construction. Moving like that can be a challenge, but the two stadiums are so close that the Bearcats will still load up this place with roaring fans ready to make life difficult for the Rockets. This is actually Toledo's first game away from home this year and although they do have some experience (four of five starting OL are seniors), this is going to be a tough one for the Rockets.
Cincinnati is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games and I'm expecting this -11.5 spread to go up as kickoff approaches. If you like the well-rested, hungry Bearcats in this game as I do, I would suggest jumping on them sooner than later to get the best number here.
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