Free College Football Pick for Saturday: Ole Miss vs. LSU
by CarbonSports - 10/22/2014
CarbonSports.ag Game Line: #3 Mississippi (-4) vs. #24 LSU (+4)
The SEC is getting a lot of love these days with the two schools from Mississippi ranking #1 and #3 currently while Alabama (#4), Auburn (#5) and Georgia (#9) are other schools from the conference in the top-10. LSU is ranked as well at #24 with a 6-2 SU mark and they would love to boost their own rating with an upset win over Ole Miss this weekend.
LSU enters this night game as slight underdogs and while they have a jump in the rankings on their minds, they are also looking for revenge. LSU lost 27-24 to Ole Miss last year as 9.5-point favorites out in Oxford, and with the roles reversed this season it's time for some payback.
Both schools are coming off dominant blowout wins last week as LSU beat up on Kentucky 41-3 while Ole Miss beat Tennessee by a similar score (34-3). The Rebels know that this might be their last tough road test of the year with only a trip to Arkansas remaining and if they can get by this game, that one against the Razorbacks and take care of business at home (vs. Auburn), they could head into the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State with the #1 ranking on the line. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then and Les Miles' LSU team is no pushover at home.
Mississippi is 0-7 ATS as favorites in true road games when coming off a win and LSU's offense has really had their number the past three seasons. Before putting up 24 on Ole Miss in last year's loss, the Tigers scored 41 and 52 points against the Rebels in 2012 and 2011. While much of the personnel on both sides has changed since then, what hasn't really changed in this rivalry is how good the underdog is at bringing home the cash.
Over the past 10 years the underdog has gone 8-2 ATS but has only won SU twice. Many of those ATS wins have come when Ole Miss were heavy underdogs (wins at +21, +28.5, +20, +14, +19, and +9.5), but the lone time we've seen single digit spreads during that span the underdog is a perfect 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU.
This is the 2nd of three straight home games for LSU and they could really catapult themselves into the mix in the SEC with wins these next few weeks. After this contest they've got a week off to prepare for Alabama and if they were to beat the #3 and #4 ranked team in the country they would certainly move into the top-10.
Revenge is on their minds this year and Miles' LSU teams are no strangers to pulling off upsets. Of his 95 career wins at LSU, 38 of those have come against top-25 teams and 14 of those 38 have come against teams ranked in the top 10. Furthermore, four of those 14 wins against top-10 foes have come here at Tiger Stadium over the last four seasons with one win each year. The Tigers are also 45-3 SU under Miles in Saturday Night home games during his 10-year tenure and all three of those losses have come to teams that were either #1 at the time or reached #1 later in the year.
Obviously, Ole Miss could be one of those few should they climb to #1 later on, but given the high stakes of this game, LSU's ability to control the game with their rushing attack and Mississippi's nerves on the road as the 'hunted' team for once lead me to believe this game will be another one of those SEC upsets we've already seen plenty of this year.
Take LSU +4.
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