Free College Football Pick for Thursday: Miami vs. Virginia Tech
by CarbonSports - 10/22/2014
CarbonSports.ag Game Line: Miami (+1.5) vs. Virginia Tech (-1.5)
Florida State might be running away with the ACC right now at 7-0 SU, but that's only in the Atlantic Division and they'll still have to get by the winner of the Coastal Division in the ACC title game to earn one of those four playoff berths. Miami and Virginia Tech are in the hunt in the Coastal right now with the loser of this week's game likely eliminated, so it is a big game for both programs.
Virginia Tech has won four of the last five meetings with the Hurricanes, including a 42-24 beating as 4.5-point underdogs down in South Florida last year. In fact, that was the third straight year the underdog in this game has covered the spread as the dog has gone 7-3 ATS in this game the last 10 years. That's good news for this Hurricanes team who is well rested after having last week off and is coming off their best offensive game of the season (55-34 win vs. Cincinnati) last time out.
Miami had 622 yards of total offense in that win as they used their rushing attack to run all over the Bearcats. 335 yards and 3 TD's on the ground was enough for the Hurricanes to establish their passing attack and freshman QB Brad Kaaya took advantage of all that room with 3 TD passes himself on 17-of-24 passing. It's unlikely that Miami will be able to wrack up all those points and yards against a tough Hokies defense, but if Miami can establish the running game early, they easily could make it four straight ATS wins for the underdog in this rivalry.
V-Tech lost in Pittsburgh last Thursday night as -1-point favorites as they haven't been great as chalk all year. Virginia Tech is 2-4 ATS this season when laying points and Pittsburgh did gash them on the ground for 210 yards. QB Michael Brewer still gets flustered with his decision-making when the game is put on his shoulders and although he will be at home this time, the fact that V-Tech went 2-for-14 on 3rd down against Pitt tells me that the Hokies offense is having a tough time staying on the field.
Miami is 8-1 ATS after scoring 35+ and playing a conference opponent and 6-1 ATS when coming off a win and playing a team coming off a SU loss as favorites. They haven't forgotten about the embarrassing beating they took on their own turf last year and with Virginia Tech being 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've been favored during the week, I'm calling an outright upset for Miami in this contest.
Take Miami +1.5
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