NBA Handicapping: Will Bucks Continue to Surprise?
by Trevor Whenham - 11/25/2014
The Milwaukee Bucks are far from the most talented or experienced teams in the league, but despite the fact that coach Jason Kidd is not the most likeable guy in the league right now, this team is as easy to like - and to get excited about the future of - as any team in the league. At 7-7 they aren't lighting the league on fire, but they are playing well above a level that will be needed to make the playoffs in the pathetic Eastern Conference. So, how is this team doing what they are doing? And how do we evaluate them as bettors?
Here are six factors to keep in mind when looking at them:
Jason Kidd: Kidd pulled an incredibly classless move bolting the Nets for the Bucks at the end of last year. At the start of last season he looked like his career would be one of the shortest punchlines in league history. He got things on track, though, and was a surprisingly effective coach for the second half of last year - and into this year. You don't have to like or respect him, but it is hard to argue that Kidd is anything less than a top-half coach in the league - and potentially more than that. He still has a way to go in game management, but he is learning quickly, and as a player he obviously saw the game well. The biggest compliment you can give him is that he has this team ready to play and give a full effort every night - even when they are outmatched in terms of talent. As long as he doesn't trip over his own massive ego, he could be a good choice for this team. He is the seventh head coach that the team has had since 2004, so it would be a very good thing if he could settle in and provide some stability to what has been a lost franchise.
The Greek Freak: Giannis Antetokounmpo has moments when he does something so incredible that you forget he is just 19 years old. And those moments are getting more and more common. This is going to be one special player in a couple of years. He's already a very good one. Of course, you have to be cautious any time you are dealing with a young player, and there will be mind-numbing frustrations. He's a huge net positive, though.
Jabari Parker: As a rookie Parker has been… fine. Pretty good at times. He is second in both scoring and rebounding among rookies, so you can't complain about his performance. He has flashes of really strong play, but he disappears too often and has been more of a grinder than a thriller so far. He'll get better this year, and much better down the road, but I struggle to imagine him as more than the second-best player on this team at any point.
Larry Sanders: Sanders has stayed out of trouble so far this season - no small feat for him. Unfortunately, he has continued to regress from the bright play of two years ago that got him a pretty rich extension. At this point his volatility and lack of production makes him more of a liability than an asset. If he could play to his potential he could be very good, but if I was in charge of the team he would not be a Buck for very long.
Not ready for prime time: Though the team has done some nice things, when they play top teams the gap between them and respectability is on display. The two elite teams they have played this year are Chicago and Toronto. They lost to the Bulls by nine in a game that wasn't as close as the score, and were crushed by the Raptors by 42. The team just isn't ready to contend with contenders yet, and that's a problem - 13 of their 15 games in December are against playoff contenders, including a four-game western trip in the middle of the month that could go badly. If they are doing well by the end of the year then the view of this team will be very different than it is now.
ATS performance: While the team has some work to do, they are, at least to this point, still exceeding the expectations of bettors. Despite being 7-7 overall, they are a nicely profitable 9-5 ATS. Last year they were a dismal 15-67 and 36-45-1 ATS, so they have taken a significant step forward in both regards - for now, anyway.
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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