NBA Handicapping: How to Take Advantage of the Cleveland Cavaliers Struggles
by George Monroy - 11/26/2014
The Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off one of the biggest offseason coups in league history by signing LeBron James during free agency and trading for perennial all-star Kevin Love a month later. The moves catapulted Cleveland up the NBA ranks and placed the team as title favorites heading into the 2014-15 season. Most experts, however, scoffed at the idea of the Cavaliers being considered as favorites over the host of talented teams in the West, yet no one really expected them to struggle as much as they have during the first part of the season.
James has been patient as he preaches about believing in the process and staying unselfish on the court. However, after Cleveland's dropped its third straight game to the Toronto Raptors, not even three weeks into the season, James and company were seemingly facing a must-win game against the Orlando Magic in mid-November. At this point bettors may be used to the drama and hyperbole that follows James, but having fans and the media begin to panic before Thanksgiving is a bit excessive.
Is Cleveland Being Overrated?
The biggest question surrounding the Cavaliers has been what is wrong with the team. Cleveland has all the pieces in place to be a juggernaut of an offensive group and seems to fit together in a way that the Miami Heat could not when James joined Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in South Beach five seasons ago. However, the real question, for bettors, at least, is not why Cleveland is struggling, but "how can the team's poor start be turned into a profit?"
Cleveland is currently sitting on a 5-8 overall ATS record through its first 13 games and has been a favorite in a whopping 92 percent of them. Yes, the struggling Cavaliers have been favored 12 times in 13 games, which is absurd for a team that is in the first year of incorporating a new coach and three all-star-level players. Here is a quick look at the most favored groups in the NBA through the first set of games.
Cleveland: favored 12 of 13
Golden State: 11 of 13
Dallas: 12 of 15
Portland: 11 of 14
Houston: 10 of 14
Toronto 11 of 14
The very first thing that stands out from those stats is the fact that the Cavaliers should not be on that list. Cleveland has a .462 winning percentage, while the other five teams are currently sitting on a .786 winning percentage or better. At this point the oddsmakers are still treating the Cavaliers as an elite them when they clearly are not, and that discrepancy is shocking.
How to Bet Cleveland?
The Cavaliers have been favored in 11 straight games since facing Chicago during their second game of the season as a four-point underdog. The team has also covered only one spread in its last five matchups, which was a very important game against Orlando. The simple assessment here is that the Cavaliers should not be favored against the elite teams in the league, and if they are, you should bet against them. Over the last week they have been favored by three points against Toronto, 1.5 points against Washington, and the same against San Antonio, and of course the team lost all three of those games.
Cleveland may get better over the course of the season, but this year will not be the same as Miami's 2010, where it started off slow and eventually made an NBA Finals run. That Miami team had two veteran stars in Wade and Bosh that had won on other teams and were desperate to win multiple championships. This 2014 Cavaliers team is comprised on young players who have not played any meaningful games and are not desperate to truly care about winning. Does anyone really think Kyrie Irving is so hungry to win a title that he is winning to change his overall game?
What bettors need to remember is that Cleveland is not a great team, and this situation has very little in common with James heading to Miami in 2010. The best course of action is looking to take advantage of the Cavaliers being overrated and take the points on a few underdogs. If you haven't noticed, Cleveland will continue to be an undeserved favorite this season, and it is already giving away seven points to a Washington Wizards team that mopped the floor with them last week.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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