NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, December 4 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/3/2014
No matter how good or bad the Knicks were, it was always a big event in the Big Apple when Michael Jordan came to town. It's not much different these days -- even though the Knicks really stink -- when LeBron James visits Madison Square Garden. James and the Cavaliers make their first of two regular-season trips there in the TNT opener Thursday night. Frankly, James might not be even be the best player currently this season on the televised doubleheader as Anthony Davis leads the Pelicans into Golden State in the nightcap. Here's a look at the full Thursday schedule.
Cavaliers at Knicks (+7.5, 198)
I think NBA fans got a wake-up call immediately that the Cavaliers were going to need quite a while to get used to each other when they opened their season Oct. 30 at home against the Knicks and were stunned 95-90. LeBron looked like he was pressing in his first game back in a Cleveland uniform as he was just 5-for-15 shooting from the field and had a whopping eight turnovers. It was the first game of James' career (regular season or postseason) in which he had at least eight turnovers, fewer than 20 points and fewer than five assists. The Cavaliers were outscored by 13 points with James on the court but outscored New York by eight points when he wasn't. Carmelo Anthony was the superior player that night with 25 points and hit a baseline jump shot with James in his face with 25 seconds left to give the Knicks a 92-87 lead. It was even the second of a back-to-back for New York, which had been killed the night before at home by Chicago. Great players find reasons to get motivated during the long NBA season, and you can be assured James will remember that game. LeBron's career high at the Garden is 52 points on Feb. 4, 2009.
The Cavs enter on a four-game winning streak following a tougher-than-expected 111-108 home win over Milwaukee on Tuesday. The Big 3 had 81 of those points as Kyrie Irving had 28, Kevin Love 27 and LeBron 26. Anderson Varejao returned after missing one game with a minor injury and had eight points and eight rebounds. Reserve Mike Miller played for the first time in four games and had six points and seven boards. The Cleveland bench has been a weak spot this year. New York dropped its fifth straight Tuesday, 98-93 to Brooklyn (called that one). Anthony had 20 points, nine boards and six assists but missed the tying 3-pointer with around five seconds left. Guard J.R. Smith missed the game due to flu-like symptoms, so he's questionable for this one, not that Smith has done much this year.
Key trends: The Cavs are 5-1 ATS in their past six road games vs. teams with a losing home record. The Knicks are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 at home. The "over/under" has gone under in four straight Knicks home games.
Early lean: Yes, New York is truly awful, but I think the Knicks play very hard vs. LeBron again and cover.
Pacers at Trail Blazers (-8.5, 195.5)
This is the only non-TNT game. Indiana has overachieved a bit considering all its injuries but enters having lost two straight and three of four -- all the defeats on the road. The Pacers fell 116-99 in Phoenix on Tuesday (called that Suns cover). About the only bright spot was that center Roy Hibbert returned after missing four games with an ankle injury. He had 15 points and 10 rebounds. Portland has won two straight since its nine-game winning streak ended. It won 105-103 in Denver on Tuesday behind 39 points and 11 rebounds from LaMarcus Aldridge. He also had the game-winning assist to Robin Lopez, who converted a layup with 1.3 seconds left.
Indiana and Portland split the season series last year as each won at home. Damian Lillard averaged 32.0 points on 51.2 percent shooting (22-43 FG) in the two games. The Blazers won in Portland 106-102 despite a career-high 43 points from Paul George, who of course is out this season. The Pacers have dropped their last five visits to Portland.
Key trends: Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its past seven after an ATS loss. The Blazers are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 Thursday games. The over is 11-1 in the Pacers' past 12 on the road.
Early lean: Portland and over.
Pelicans at Warriors (-7.5, 206)
New Orleans spoiled the season debut of Kevin Durant on Tuesday night as the Pelicans beat the visiting Thunder 112-104. Davis put on another clinic with 25 points, 10 rebounds, six steals, four assists and four blocks. Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson each had 23 points. The Pelicans never trailed after the middle of the second quarter. New Orleans coach Monty Williams made an unusual change to the starting lineup, inserting seldom-used Luke Babbitt at small forward and moving Tyreke Evans to shooting guard. The Pelicans have been week at shooting guard since Eric Gordon went down with a potential season-ending injury.
Golden State nearly was caught in a trap in its first game home in more than two weeks on Tuesday night as it beat Orlando 98-97 on Stephen Curry's 3-pointer with 2.2 seconds left. It was the Warriors' 10th straight win. Shockingly, it was Curry's first career go-ahead 3-pointer in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime. He had been 0-for-7. Curry was questionable for the game with a sprained ankle -- but had 22 points -- as was Klay Thompson (bruised quad), but Thompson also played and finished with 20 points. Draymond Green sprained his thumb in the game but played through it. X-rays were negative.
The Warriors swept the season series with New Orleans for the second consecutive time last season, the first time in franchise history they have earned consecutive series sweeps against New Orleans. Golden State has won seven consecutive games against the Pelicans, the Warriors' longest win streak ever against New Orleans.
Key trends: New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its past six after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Assuming Curry and Thompson are fine again, Warriors and over.
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