NBA Odds and Predictions: Tuesday, November 11 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/10/2014
The major sportsbooks will have live betting available on two games Tuesday, both on NBA TV: Magic at Raptors with a 7:30 p.m. Eastern tipoff and, the game of the night, Spurs at Warriors at 10:30 p.m. That could easily be a preview of the Western Conference Finals, although the Spurs haven't looked that great in the early going. They remain +320 West favorites at Sportsbook.ag, with Golden State now up to No. 2 (with the Clippers) at +400. Here's a look at every matchup on Tuesday.
Magic at Raptors (-10, 200)
I fully expected Toronto to win the Atlantic Division again, but right now the Raptors might be the best team in the Eastern Conference at 6-1. They blew out Philadelphia (shocker!) 120-88 on Sunday. The Raptors are alone atop the Eastern Conference for the first time in their 20-year history. They were tied for first in November 2004. Toronto has started 4-0 at home for the first time since the 2003-04 season. The Magic lost 104-96 in Brooklyn on Sunday despite 27 points and 12 boards from Nikola Vucevic. Toronto won all three matchups last season rather easily.
Key trends: Toronto has covered the past six meetings. The "over/under" has gone over in 10 of the Raptors' past 12 following an ATS win.
Early lean: Toronto and under.
Lakers at Grizzlies (-10.5, 197.5)
The Lakers are rolling! They enter off their first win of the season, a 107-92 defeat of visiting Charlotte on Sunday. L.A. used a 25-6 run in the third quarter to take control. Pretty solid defense considering that teams were averaging 116.8 points per game vs. L.A. entering that matchup. The Hornets were held to five field goals in the third and just two over the final 3:48 while getting outscored 34-13 in the period. Memphis suffered its first loss of the year on Saturday, 93-92 in Milwaukee. Maybe that wasn't a huge shocker as it was the second of a back-to-back for the Grizz. Los Angeles has dropped two straight and six of eight to the Grizzlies, including three of four at Memphis.
Key trends: The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings. The Lakers have covered just five of their past 22 vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Huge on the under. A bit on fence on side, but it seems a tad high.
Thunder at Bucks (-5, 190)
Under the "I didn't see that coming" banner, the Thunder beat Sacramento 101-93 on Sunday for win No. 2. Reggie Jackson was great, scoring 11 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter. Guess he's not frozen out by his veteran teammates any longer. It was only the second time OKC reached triple digits this season. As noted above, Milwaukee surprised Memphis 93-92 on Saturday. Brandon Knight converted a 3-point play with 1.1 seconds left. Milwaukee was just 3-27 last year against teams from the Western Conference.
Key trends: OKC is 1-6 ATS in its past seven on the road. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks' past four.
Early lean: Should the Bucks really be five-point favorites over anyone? Take the points and under.
Kings at Mavericks (-8, 204)
Sacramento's five-game winning streak ended in Sunday's loss in Oklahoma City. It was the Kings' first road defeat of the year. They might have been winded after being dragged into overtime on Friday night in Phoenix. Dallas lost 105-96 at home to Miami on Sunday. Chandler Parsons had just four points and is 2 of 20 from the field the past two games. Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki needs 17 points in this one to pass Hakeem Olajuwon for ninth on the career scoring list. I think it's fair to say Dirk will score at least 17.
Key trends: The Kings have covered the past four meetings. The over is 4-1 in Dallas' past five after a loss.
Early lean: Take points and over.
Hornets at Trail Blazers (TBA)
Charlotte has been pretty disappointing thus far and had no right losing to the Lakers by 15 points on Sunday in the start of a four-game West Coast trip (if you include Phoenix as the West Coast). The Hornets are winless on the road thus far. How much energy will the Blazers have? This is their third game in four days and then have to travel overnight to Denver. Blazers forward Nicolas Batum has been ruled out for the game after leaving Sunday's win over Denver with a knee contusion. An MRI revealed no significant damage.
Key trends: Charlotte has failed to cover its past six at Portland. The over is 4-0 in the past four.
Early lean: Obviously have to hold out here. Batum is a fairly significant loss -- although he has been a bit off to start this season -- and I presume why no opening number.
Spurs at Warriors (TBA)
You are going to probably see TBA on many Spurs games this season in the second of a back-to-back because no one knows what Coach Gregg Popovich might do in terms of resting some of his guys in that scenario. San Antonio played at the L.A. Clippers on Monday night, so this sure smells like a game where Tim Duncan might sit out. Although a loss in L.A. would drop the team to 2-4, and there's only so much of a hole you can dig yourself out of. The Spurs will be without Marco Belinelli (groin), Tiago Splitter (calf) and Patty Mills (shoulder). Golden State had the definition of a letdown game Sunday in losing 107-95 in Phoenix. That came a night after a big win at previously unbeaten Houston. The Warriors looked spent late in the game as the Suns outscored them 36-16 in the fourth quarter. Klay Thompson missed it with a sprained right hand. He says he will play Tuesday.
Key trends: The Spurs have covered five of the past six meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.
Early lean: Honestly, just bet against the Spurs in all back-to-backs. More often than not you will get lucky with Pop resting guys.
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