NCAA Football Predictions: Week 16 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 12/8/2014
Dear TCU: Play a better nonconference schedule than Samford (Samford!), Minnesota and SMU.
Dear Baylor: Your nonconference schedule is actually humorous it was so bad. You get what you deserve from the College Football Playoff committee when you schedule SMU, Northwestern State (not even Northwestern!) and Buffalo.
Dear Big 12: It's your own fault that you don't have a conference championship game or that you can even agree on one true champion instead of co-winners. Let the rumors begin of the Big 12 adding two teams ASAP (Boise State? Cincinnati? Memphis? BYU?) to get to 12 and be able to stage a conference title game.
So while I understand why fans of Baylor and TCU are upset that their teams are left out of the playoff, I believe the committee got it right with jumping Ohio State to No. 4 to go along with no-doubters Alabama, Oregon and Florida State. What do those four schools all have in common? They won their conference title game in Week 15.
So on Jan. 1 at the Rose Bowl we have No. 2 Oregon facing No. 3 Florida State in the mid-afternoon start and then a nightcap of No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. You can't ask for better matchups.
Of course Ducks-Seminoles will be a matchup of the last two Heisman winners. Jameis Winston was your 2013 winner on the way to the national title, while Oregon's Marcus Mariota is going to win it this Saturday (told you so back in the summer). It should be a shootout with two singular offensive talents and likely Top-5 picks in the 2015 draft. You know, if Winston isn't expelled from school before then after his conduct code hearing last week. There will be a decision within two weeks and expulsion is a possibility, although obviously unlikely. FSU puts its 29-game winning streak on the line, while Oregon has won eight straight by double digits since its only loss of the season to Arizona.At BetOnline, Oregon opened as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 71 points. The Ducks are -340 on the moneyline and FSU +285. Amazingly, it's the first-ever meeting between the schools.
As for Tide-Buckeyes, they are two of the blue-blood programs in the sport. On any Top-5 list of the five most influential programs you have to have Alabama and OSU along with probably Notre Dame, USC and Michigan. There's a pretty good individual matchup in this one was well: Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban against the Buckeyes' Urban Meyer. They weren't exactly pals while Meyer was at Florida. What Meyer has done in Columbus, now on his third quarterback this season, is nothing short of unbelievable. Saban usually has his teams incredibly prepared for bowl games. The only times the Tide usually lose them under Saban is when they don't care, like in last year's Sugar Bowl to Oklahoma after the crushing Iron Bowl loss. Alabama opened as a 10-point favorite with a total of 58. The Tide are -380 on the moneyline with OSU at +320.
The two winners will meet Jan. 12 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Bovada lists Alabama as the 11/10 national title favorite with Oregon 17/10, FSU 13/2 and OSU 7/1. The favored matchup is Alabama-Oregon at -160, while the long shot is Ohio State and Florida State at +1200. It's really too early to pick a side here but I'd lean the two favorites, although I think FSU covers. Not sure OSU will as Saban gets a month to confuse Buckeyes third-string QB Cardale Jones. Click here for a full bowl game schedule.
Army vs. Navy
Technically the 2014 regular season closes Saturday in Baltimore in the 115th meeting between Army and Navy, with the Midshipmen as 15-point BetOnline favorites with a total of 59. I always love these games because it's what I imagine football looked like in the 1940s: all running and no passing.
The Black Knights (4-7), who won't be playing in a bowl, rank dead last in passing at 64.5 yards per game (per game!) but sixth in rushing at 305.5 yards per outing. This might as well be Army's bowl game as the Cadets haven't played since Nov. 22. This isn't a very good team, having lost to terrible Wake Forest as well as Ivy League school Yale.
Navy (6-5) is headed to the Poinsettia Bowl against San Diego State. The Midshipmen are second-from-last in passing at 87.6 yards per game and No. 2 in rushing at 357.8 ypg. They hung with Ohio State in the season opener and also gave Notre Dame some problems. Navy also has a guy who will go down as an all-time great FBS player in junior QB Keenan Reynolds. He has 61 career rushing touchdowns, the most by a quarterback in NCAA history, and he also has 12 games with three rushing scores, the most by any player in FBS history.
Reynolds has been the game MVP of the past two Army-Navy matchups. Last year in a 34-7 victory in Philadelphia, Reynolds rushed 30 times for 136 yards and three scores. He attempted seven passes and completed two. Army attempted 11 total passes. That was Navy's 12th straight win in the series, 10 by double digits. Overall, Navy has outscored Army 400-132 (33.3-11.0) in the winning streak.
The pick: Navy and "under."
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