Super Bowl Cheat Sheet: Taking a Closer Look at the Stats
by George Monroy - 1/30/2014
The Super Bowl XLVIII matchup between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks will be the biggest and most-watched game of the year. The casual fans and bettors will all flock to televisions and betting sites on Sunday trying to take part in the must-see sporting event of the year. At this point in the week, everyone has an opinion on how the game will play out. Your uncle that never watches football has a hot tip on the “under,” while your mother is backing Denver minus the points because Peyton Manning needs another Super Bowl win for his legacy.
Most of the early action came in on Denver as the line moved from a ‘pick em’ at most books to the Broncos giving away anywhere from two to three points. And even though every one has an opinion, let’s take a closer look at the stats and see how the last 10 Super Bowls have turned out.
2013: Underdog and “Over”
2012: Underdog and Under
2011: Favorite and Over
2010: Underdog and Under
2009: Underdog and Over
2008: Underdog and Under
2007: Favorite and Under
2006: Favorite and Under
2005: Underdog and Under
2004: Underdog and Over
The underdogs have ruled the Super Bowl over the last 10 years, posting a 7-3 record and wining five of the last six matchups. Both the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants won the last two Super Bowls as underdogs, while the Green Bay Packers were the last favorite to win three seasons ago with their six-point victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The old adage that ‘defense wins Super Bowls’ seems to be a work here, as the more defensive-orientated team has won two of the last three and four of the last six games.
2013: 34-31: 65 points
2012: 21-17: 38 points
2011: 31-25: 56 points
2010: 31-17: 48 points
2009: 27-23: 50 points
2008: 17-14: 31 points
2007: 29-17: 46 points
2006: 21-10: 31 points
2005: 24-21: 45 points
2004: 32-29: 61 points
The total for Sunday’s game is 47.5 points at BookMaker, and while that number seems high for a Seahawks games, six of the last 10 games have gone over 48 points. Surprisingly, last year’s matchup between two very good defensive teams went over its posted total of 48 points by a wide margin, but in general the under has come in during six of the last 10 games.
Manning and the Weather
Record: 8-14 SU, 7-14-1 ATS, 12-9-1 O/U in temperatures 40 degree or below
Much has been made about Manning’s ability—or should I say lack of ability—to play in the snow. The issue has been the most-talked-about story during the two week long Super Bowl coverage, and when taking a look at the stats, it’s a real concern. The weather is expected to be below freezing with possible snow and rain during the matchup. It is impossible to ignore the fact that Manning does not play well under those conditions. However, the oddsmakers seemed to ignore those factors and post a Super Bowl spread and total would probably be more appropriate under different conditions.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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