Super Bowl Halftime Betting Advice and Strategy
by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2014
There are a lot of reasons I love the Super Bowl. The biggest of all, though, is probably halftime betting. The game is such an immense challenge to handicap that being able to make bets after watching the first half is a real advantage. Given the extra long halftime because of the halftime show, it is even more compelling to bet the second half than usual.
Because betting action is so heavy for the Super Bowl, books are sure to get the numbers out as quickly as they can once the first half ends. That means that they often have a number in mind before the game even begins, and they are forced to change and adapt that on the fly as necessary. If you watch the first half closely then you can often find situations where the second half line doesn’t match your opinion — in a favorable way. This is especially possible if your opinion of what is going to happen isn’t likely to match the public opinion.
When looking at betting the second half this year, there are going to be some unique factors to consider — as there are in every Super Bowl. Here is some Super Bowl halftime betting advice strategy to help guide you to second half success:
Impact of the weather: The weather is a very big storyline for this game, and it has been since the location of the game was announced years ago. It remains to be seen what impact the weather has on the game, though.
My opinion is and has always been that it is a ridiculously overstated factor — the impact could be far more significant for the people in the stands who aren’t prepared for the weather than it is for the players. Until we see what the conditions are really like, though, we won’t know for sure.
When betting on the second half we have the advantage of seeing how the weather has been in the first half so we can adjust accordingly. Has the weather impacted one team more than the other? Has the impact increased or decreased as players have been on the field longer? Is it likely that the team can make adjustments to overcome their issues — like changing shoes in the second half? Have the conditions been getting worse as the game has gone along?
Being able to judge the weather and its impact is a major advantage for bettors.
Which strength is stronger?: In this game we have a historically-strong offense matched up against a historically-strong defense. Strength against strength. That matchup is very likely going to define the outcome of this game.
By halftime we should be able to have a good sense of which side has the edge. Both teams are good at adjustments, of course, so it isn’t as simple as assuming that what happened in the first half will continue to happen in the second. If one team seems to have a clear edge, though, then it could be a big factor in the second half as well.
Wilson’s effectiveness: Russell Wilson will not win or lose this game by himself. He is far and away the second most important quarterback on this game. He does need to avoid mistakes, though, and he needs to make decisions that help his offense be the best it can be.
By halftime we will have a sense of whether Wilson is going to be able to be good enough to come out on top. That’s really all he needs to be — good enough. Manning likely needs to be much better than that.
Public chatter: Thanks to the wonders of the Internet we are able to get a very good sense of how the public is responding to the game and what impact that could have on halftime betting.
Looking at articles written during the first half, and especially at forums and message boards for bettors and sports fans, we can quickly assess what the public thinks. If the widely-held opinion isn’t the same as yours then you could have a chance for some nice value.
Need for adjustments: One thing that makes the Super Bowl unique is the length of the halftime. Coaches have a ridiculous amount of time to look at what went wrong and figure out ways to fix it. More than any other game, then, the better coaching staff — or at least the one that changes on the fly better — has a real edge in this game.
After the first half you can assess what needs to change and how confident you are that the teams can change it. The second half in games is often all about a chess match. Coaches anticipate what their opponents will do and try to develop a countermove in advance.
The Seahawks have been a better team in the second half than the first several times, while the Broncos have had a couple of embarrassing second halves that didn’t match the first. Will that be the case again here, or should we expect something else?
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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