2014 Super Bowl Props Picks with Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 1/28/2014
Clearly I can't start any overall Super Bowl props picks story without first looking at the most popular one every year: game MVP.
Frankly, I hate this prop now. Why? It's such a popularity contest these days -- surprised it's not decided by Twitter votes by fans or something yet -- and that means a quarterback has such a big advantage because they are clearly the most well-known players on the field. I know the books are taking massive action on Peyton Manning this week, and no surprise. He's the most well-liked player in the NFL. This Super Bowl against Seattle is all about Manning winning another ring. So if you think Denver is going to win, then you have to bet on Manning even at a ridiculous 11/10 price at Bovada.
I happen to think the Broncos lose. Manning hasn't seen a defense like Seattle's this season, and history shows in past Super Bowls that top defenses generally beat top offenses. I also do believe the cold weather is a small factor. So I lean to Marshawn Lynch at 15/4 even though he is clearly the guy the Denver defense will focus on stopping first and foremost. I might even throw a few bucks on Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka. It would seem fitting for a kicker to win the award for the first time in the first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl. Take Hauschka at “over” 8.5 total points at -105. Ditto that both teams make at least a 33-yard field goal at +125. I'm shocked that's the underdog, with “no” at -155.
I hadn't seen this prop before, but BetOnline has the round in which the MVP was drafted, with first round a big-250 favorite. Of course, both Manning and Lynch were first-round picks. Russell Wilson was a third-rounder (+300 second-favorite). I love first round there because you also get guys like Demaryius Thomas, Knowshon Moreno and Percy Harvin.
Alas, it looks like it won't snow Sunday with only a 20-percent chance. So that means, you know, you have an 80 percent chance of winning Bovada's will it snow during game prop. Jump big on no there at -300. Also jump big on “under” 28 degrees being the lowest temperature during the game. It won't be at kickoff, but I'm sure by about the fourth quarter it's going to be in the low 20s. Perhaps my favorite prop at Bovada is whether the power goes out at the stadium like last year. Can't recommend that one at +2000. My second favorite? Will Denver's emotional running back Knowshon Moreno cry during the Super Bowl? No question about it, so “yes” at +250. He's from that area, and the waterworks will be going.
Another one I like at Bovada is whether the word “marijuana” is mentioned at all during the telecast. Of course, that's a prop because the states of Washington and Colorado are the only two in the USA where recreational use of the stuff is legal. I would have had a hard time thinking Troy Aikman or Joe Buck would talk about weed, but it did become news this week when Roger Goodell said he could see a day where NFL players are allowed to use medicinal marijuana to help with the aches and pains of the game. So take a shot with yes at +350.
Richard Sherman was expected to be a big story this week after his antics at the NFC title game, but he's been pretty quiet and apologetic. That Sherman gets a taunting penalty is +400 with not at -700. It seems like he's learned his lesson and doesn't want to be thought of as a thug. So no. I absolutely think he gets called for a pass interference penalty during the game, and that's +150.
I like the TV ratings props this week as well. Winter weather is just killing half the country again, which means more people home watching. Then you have the Peyton Manning factor and the first outdoor cold-weather game to add a little more intrigue. This one sets records. Take over a 47.5 rating (-120) and 112 million viewers (-140).
The first coach to be shown after the “National Anthem”? Pete Carroll is much better known nationally, so take him at -155 over Denver's John Fox. All signs point to this being a record handle for the books in Nevada on the game, so take over $102 million at -150 on BetOnline.
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Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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