The College Basketball Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks article's third edition is ready to go. Last season was the first for this article. In the small sample size, last season's results weren't very good. Still, there is no doubt that looking closely at the schedule and looking for teams to fade is a very good strategy in college basketball.
For this article throughout the year, I'll be looking at schedule spots that could be bad ones for teams throughout the course of the season and then recommending plays based on those spots. We'll track the results throughout the course of the season. For games that don't have a line at the time each article is written, the Bookmaker opening line will be used for grading purposes. All plays will be one-unit plays.
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The first couple weeks of plays this year have been bad. In week one, the plays went 0-4. Last week, the plays went 2-3. The Cal Golden Bears cashed for those who played the BetOnline opener, but we are going with the more widely available Bookmaker openers, and that play was a tough loser from that opening line. Colorado took care of business in a good spot against a wary BYU team. UC Irvine won big as a three-point underdog at Utah State. Syracuse didn't show up at St. John's, and that was one of the most confusing games of the weekend to me. Creighton didn't overlook IUPUI a bit. Instead, they just beat them down from the tip.
On to the third week to look for some better results.
Play #1- Play on Wisconsin-Green Bay -9 (Fade Pacific) on Tuesday, December 15
Pacific will be playing without their head coach Ron Verlin as well as assistant coach Dwight Young after they were suspended at the end of last week. There are allegations of academic misconduct at Pacific. The two coaches were suspended on Saturday, and they missed the Pacific 19-point loss at Fresno State. Fresno State led by as many as 24 late before coasting to the finish.
Pacific has shown they aren't a good team to start with, and with this kind of unexpected issue coming up, I see them struggling for a while. Wisconsin-Green Bay is only 4-4 on the year, but they play a quick tempo and can pile up the points in a hurry. The Phoenix have played a much tougher schedule than Pacific as well. I'll side with the home favorite in this one.
Play #2- Play on Texas A&M (Fade Baylor) on Saturday, December 19
The Baylor Bears have played one road game so far this year. That road game was a seven-point loss at Oregon. Baylor's schedule is among the weakest in the country thus far. The Bears have been busy playing the likes of Arkansas State, Prairie View A&M, and Jackson State in the last few weeks. That doesn't prepare them well for a trip to take on a hungry Texas A&M team on the road.
The Aggies were beaten soundly by Baylor last year in Waco, so Texas A&M has revenge on their minds. Texas A&M has played Gonzaga, Arizona State, Texas, and Kansas State in recent weeks. That should make them the better prepared team in this matchup. While the Aggies have been inconsistent this year, their freshman class is awesome, and this team has a bunch of upside.
Play #3- Play on Iowa (Fade Drake) on Saturday, December 19
The Iowa Hawkeyes lost in brutal fashion last Thursday night at Iowa State. Iowa led the entire game until the final seconds. That loss had to tick off this Iowa team, and they have more than a week between games. That means they have plenty of time to think about it, and I think that should mean that they'll take out their frustration on Drake.
The Drake Bulldogs haven't played a single Top 100 team so far this year, but that changes on Saturday night. Drake is in Des Moines, while Iowa is in Iowa City. This game will be played on a neutral floor in Des Moines at Wells Fargo Arena. The Hawkeyes will be a significant favorite here, but I don't see that mattering. Look for Iowa to run up the score as they have already done many times this year against lesser opponents.
Play #4- Play on Boise State (Fade Bradley) on Sunday, December 20
The Bradley Braves are among the worst teams in the nation. Bradley is shooting a miserable 36.4 percent from the floor overall, and 23.5 percent from long range on the year. Bradley has played three road games this year, and they have lost all of them by at least 23 points. Their 23-point road loss was against a poor Delaware team. Bradley lost at UT Arlington by an embarrassing final of 97-61.
Boise State has a week off before this game, and the Broncos won't play for 10 days after this one, so this isn't a letdown spot or a look-ahead spot for Boise State. The Broncos efficient offense should shred this Bradley defense. Lay the big number and expect a blowout in this one.
Last Week's Results- 2 Wins (Colorado -5.5, UC Irvine +3) 3 Losses (Cal -5.5, Syracuse -8.5, IUPUI +15 )
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 2 Wins 7 Losses (-$570)
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