College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 1/12/2015
We're ready to go with the fifth edition of the Schedule Spot Fade Plays weekly college basketball article. It was the first losing week for the plays last week. Minnesota lost in overtime to Ohio State in our first selection. The second selection was a nice winner as SMU routed Memphis. The final play was on Loyola (Chicago) at home against Wichita State on Sunday. Loyola was a seven-point underdog in that game, and they led by five points at halftime. It all unraveled in the second half, though, as Wichita State pulled away and won by double digits. The Shockers hot shooting and offensive rebounding was the difference.
Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
Four plays this week, so this will be the biggest slate of plays so far this year for this weekly article.
Play #1- Play on Vanderbilt (Fade Georgia) on Wednesday, January 14
There aren't very many teams that have a better home-court advantage than the Vanderbilt Commodores. Memorial Gymasium has a lot of oddities, and the Commodores are the only team that knows that gym really well. Kevin Stallings is a terrific in-game coach, and he has some really good freshmen this year. Georgia is in a terrible spot here. The Bulldogs lost in double overtime at LSU on Saturday night. Georgia had that game won multiple times but ended up handing it away. It will be hard for them to get off the mat immediately in a very hostile environment. The Bulldogs don't have an impressive road record in the last few seasons. Vanderbilt should be a short favorite here, and we'll take the Commodores in this spot.
Play #2- Play on Oakland (Fade Wisconsin-Green Bay) on Thursday, January 15
Green Bay is certainly the favorite in the Horizon League, but the Phoenix aren't quite the complete team they were last year. What's missing? They don't have much size and talent in the frontcourt this year. Last year, they had 7-foot-1 Alec Brown in the post to block shots and grab offensive rebounds, but he graduated, and the team doesn't have much size now. Oakland's Corey Petros is the best post player in the league, and he should have a big game. Why is this a bad scheduling spot for Green Bay? They won a rivalry game last Friday at Milwaukee and then beat Youngstown at home on Sunday. Oakland will be the more rested team, and this Golden Grizzlies team is capable of an upset. We'll take the points with the home team.
Play #3- Play on LSU (Fade Texas A&M) on Saturday, January 17
The Texas A&M Aggies had the Kentucky Wildcats beaten this past Saturday. The Aggies let them off the hook, and that loss is going to sting for a while. It was a chance for Texas A&M to pick up a program-defining win. Texas A&M will probably get past a bad Mississippi State team on Tuesday, but I don't give them much of a shot here against an improving LSU team. It's awfully hard for a mediocre team like Texas A&M to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss right away, and they might still be without their best player (Jalen Jones) as well. The Aggies aren't likely to bring their best effort here, and I think there's a good chance they'll get run out of Baton Rouge with a big loss.
Play #4- Play on Texas (Fade West Virginia) on Saturday, January 17
The Big 12 is a really deep conference this year, which means they are going to be several extremely difficult spots in this league over the course of the season. West Virginia lost at home to Iowa State on Saturday night. They then must play a good Oklahoma team on Tuesday night before traveling to Texas to take on the Longhorns on Saturday. Rick Barnes' team is coming off two ugly losses, and they have a full week off before this game. West Virginia should run into an angry Texas team here. Talent is not the problem for Texas, and I think if there was ever a good spot for the Longhorns it is here. West Virginia plays hard for Bob Huggins, but the Mountaineers don't have the same elite talent. The Mountaineers could also be a little weary as they enter this one against a well-rested Texas team. We'll take the home team.
Last Week's Results- 1 Win (SMU -8.5) 2 Losses (Minnesota -1.5, Loyola Chicago +7)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 6 Wins 5 Losses (+$50)
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