College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 1/20/2015
The sixth edition of the Schedule Spot Fade Plays weekly article is ready to go. It was a four-play card last week for the fade plays, and those plays split at 2-2. Oakland and Texas were both great calls as Oakland pulled an outright upset and Texas covered by more than 20 points. The scheduling spot absolutely did in West Virginia in that game as Texas had more energy and looked like the much hungrier team all through that game. Vanderbilt was in a nice spot at home against Georgia, but the Bulldogs were burying shots from long range while Vanderbilt couldn't buy a bucket. The LSU loss was a surprising one. The Tigers jumped out to a big early lead over Texas A&M, and they led by as many as 13 points in the second half before collapsing and losing outright.
Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
Play #1- Play on Wake Forest +8 (Fade North Carolina) on Wednesday, January 21
The ACC is a strong conference, which means we can find some teams in difficult spots on a regular basis here. North Carolina is in a tough spot here. First of all, this game always means more to Wake Forest than it means to North Carolina. Wake Forest wants to slay the dragon, and they consider North Carolina a rival. On the other side, the Tar Heels only consider Duke and NC State rivals. Danny Manning's Wake Forest team has shown they can be highly-competitive at home against good teams. They put a big scare into both Louisville and Duke at home. North Carolina has had a bunch of big games in the past two weeks (Notre Dame, Louisville, NC State), and it will be hard for them to get up for this game. We'll grab the points with the home underdog.
Play #2- Play on Loyola Chicago -1.5 (Fade Evansville) on Wednesday, January 21
The Evansville Purple Aces hosted Wichita State on Saturday afternoon. Evansville typically has a great home-court advantage, and the team put everything it had into that game. However, they fell far short. Wichita State blew them out as Evansville couldn't get a shot to fall. I think there will be a hangover effect from that game. Evansville isn't good on the road to start with, and now they are going to play a much-improved Loyola (Chicago) team. Loyola beat Evansville on the road in a big upset earlier this year. Look for them to sweep the season series with a win over an Evansville team that puts up a weak effort here.
Play #3- Play on Hawaii (Fade UC Davis) on Thursday, January 22
The trip to Hawaii is always a really difficult one. Everyone wants to go to Hawaii, but not many people want to go to Hawaii to play a basketball game. UC Davis has started the season at 14-3, and they are 10-3 against the spread. The Aggies are the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the country. Hawaii has impressed me about as much as any team in the country this year compared to expectations. Hawaii lost all of their top talent from a year ago, and right before the year their head coach was fired. Interim Coach Benjy Taylor has this team playing an exciting style of basketball. This young team is fighting hard for every loose ball and making the offense work with their aggressive defense. UC Davis is a good team, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. When they travel to Hawaii, I think it's a good time to fade them.
Play #4- Play on Georgia State (Fade Louisiana Lafayette) on Saturday, January 24
The Georgia State Panthers are the most talented team in the Sun Belt Conference. They haven't played like it so far this year, though. Georgia State is just 6-12 ATS, and they have already been upset three times as a favorite in Sun Belt play. Still, I believe this is a great opportunity to back the Panthers. They play this Saturday against a Louisiana Lafayette team that dashed their hopes of going to the NCAA Tournament last year. Lafayette came back late to beat Georgia State in overtime in that game. Earlier this year, Louisiana Lafayette come from behind late to beat Georgia State 84-80 in a game played at Lafayette. Georgia State is the home team this time around, and they have plenty of reasons to want to exact revenge on the Ragin' Cajuns. Add in the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns must play three games this week, and this is a good spot to fade them.
Last Week's Results- 2 Wins (Oakland +7, Texas -2) 2 Losses (Vanderbilt -2.5, LSU -6)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 8 Wins 7 Losses (+$30)
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