College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 2/3/2015
It's time for the eighth edition of the Schedule Spot Fade Plays weekly article. It was a good week for the plays last week as they went 2-1. Utah State was the best call of the week. The Aggies dominated throughout against a Wyoming team that just isn't the same away from their home court. Boise State was a bit of a fortunate cover. The Broncos caught fire at the end of the game and erased a double-digit deficit in the second half to win by four points. Colorado State couldn't get a stop when they needed it most. Northwestern was the lone loser last week. The Wildcats are a difficult team to figure out. Northwestern has had some of the best teams in the Big Ten on the ropes and found a way to lose late. Then when they play against a team they are very capable of beating, the Wildcats don't bring their best effort.
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Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
Play #1- Play on Texas (Fade Oklahoma State) on Wednesday, February 4
Both teams come in off a disappointing loss. Texas was blasted by 23 points at Baylor, while Oklahoma State lost on their home floor by eight points against rival Oklahoma. Texas has lost three games in a row. The Longhorns are always a hot-and-cold type of team, and this seems like a good spot for them to circle the wagons. Talent isn't the issue at Texas, and Myles Turner has been amazing in his freshman season. Oklahoma State was just swept by Oklahoma, and the Cowboys aren't likely to be ready for another physical matchup again right away. Everyone knows Marcus Smart is no longer with the Cowboys, but Markel Brown was a big loss as well. The Cowboys don't have all that much scoring firepower. They are heavily reliant on Phil Forte and Le'Bryan Nash. Texas returns home against a team that is coming off a draining loss. We'll back the Longhorns here.
Play #2- Play on UC Irvine (Fade UC Davis) on Thursday, February 5
UC Davis got a rare national television game against Cal Poly this past Saturday night. Big West Conference teams almost never get television time, and when they do it's a big deal around campus. Davis trailed almost the entire game before mounting a massive comeback and forcing the game into overtime. The Aggies eventually prevailed by three points in overtime. That's a game that takes a lot of energy out of a team. UC Davis was fortunate to win that game, and they had to put everything they had into that contest. Now, they must travel and take on the best team in the conference in UC Irvine. UC Irvine has been making a statement in the last few games as they have won at Hawaii and then at home over Cal Poly by 10 points and over UCSB by 22 points. UC Davis is in a difficult spot, and they are running into a team that is on fire. Fade the Aggies on Thursday night.
Play #3- Play on Montana (Fade Eastern Washington) on Thursday, February 5
The Montana Grizzlies were up and down in the nonconference slate this year as they adjusted to a new head coach. Lately, Montana has been playing as well as anyone in the conference. They led at Sacramento State by double digits for much of the second half before losing by a single point at the buzzer on Saturday night. Eastern Washington was great in the nonconference slate, but they have been a bit shaky of late. Eastern Washington needed overtime to beat Idaho at home on Saturday night. The Eagles also lost by 13 points in their trip to Sacramento State a couple weeks ago. Montana comes home and is in a bad mood after blowing a great chance at Sacramento this past weekend. Eastern Washington is playing their first road game since that loss at Sacramento. The Grizzlies win with defense, and I look to see them slow down Eastern Washington in this one.
Last Week's Results- 2 Wins (Utah State +2, Boise State -2) 1 Loss (Northwestern +2)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 12 Wins 10 Losses (+$100)
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