College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 1/26/2015
The seventh edition of the Schedule Spot Fade Plays weekly article is here. For the second straight week, the schedule spot fade plays split at 2-2. The first two plays were losers on Wednesday night as Wake Forest +8 and Loyola (Chicago) -1.5 both fell short. Loyola was dealing with some injury issues that ended up being too much to overcome. Wake Forest simply ran into a North Carolina team that was an absolute buzzsaw on that particular night. Hawaii humbled UC Davis on Thursday night as Hawaii -2.5 cashed in. On Saturday, Georgia State finally got some revenge on Louisiana Lafayette as the Panthers covered the eight-point spread.
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Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
Play #1- Play on Boise State (Fade Colorado State) on Tuesday, January 27
The Colorado State Rams are coming off a huge win Saturday night on national television over the San Diego State Aztecs. San Diego State has been the best team in the Mountain West over the last few years, and this past Saturday's game was definitely one that Colorado State has been looking forward to for a long time. This is a really difficult spot for them now as they travel to Boise less than 72 hours after that win. Colorado State has had trouble winning in Boise in the last few years, and this Broncos team can really score. Boise State has built some nice momentum with four straight wins. The Broncos had an easier game this past Saturday, and they should be well rested. Colorado State has shown a lot of vulnerability on the road this year. They won by a single point at Denver. They won by a point in overtime at New Mexico State (when New Mexico State was without their leading scorer). They then lost by 13 at New Mexico. It will be tough for Colorado State to bring their best effort again after such a huge win for the program.
Play #2- Play on Utah State (Fade Wyoming) on Tuesday, January 27
The Smith Spectrum is among the toughest places to play in the country. The fans are rowdy, and the home team feeds off those rowdy fans. Wyoming walks into a really difficult situation here for another reason as well. The Cowboys beat Fresno State in triple overtime a couple games ago and then needed overtime to beat New Mexico this past Saturday. Wyoming has to be a little bit worn out. Utah State isn't as talented as they have been in recent years, but Wyoming is a team that is far better at home than they are on the road. The Aggies have the No. 1-ranked defense in the Mountain West Conference, and Wyoming has shown that they can get bogged down on offense against good defensive teams (see their home loss against San Diego State). It's a difficult spot for the Cowboys, so we'll take this opportunity to fade them on the road.
Play #3- Play on Northwestern (Fade Purdue) on Saturday, January 31
Purdue picked up a nice come-from-behind win over Iowa this past Saturday. The Boilermakers then host in-state rival Indiana on Wednesday night. That game is going to take a lot out of this young team, because the Hoosiers and Boilermakers have an underrated rivalry going in college hoops. Purdue then travels to Evanston to take on a Northwestern team that has lost six straight games. Take a look at the way Northwestern has been losing games, though, and you'll see that this Wildcats team isn't bad at all. They have lost their last three games against very good opponents by a grand total of five points. Northwestern will be extra hungry for a win, and Purdue isn't likely to get too jacked up for a game like this after playing Indiana the previous game. It's a nice spot to back the Wildcats.
Last Week's Results- 2 Wins (Hawaii -2.5, Georgia State -8) 2 Losses (Wake Forest +8, Loyola -1.5)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 10 Wins 9 Losses (+$10)
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