College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 1/6/2015
It's time for the fourth edition of the Schedule Spot Fade plays report. Last week's selections were 2-1 for another profitable week. The lone loser was our attempt to fade BYU in their game at San Francisco last weekend. The Cougars thumped the Dons as their tough schedule proved to be no problem for a BYU team that looks ready to make some noise this year. In last week's report, I made a note of a rare situation where I was going to fade UCLA in consecutive games on Friday at Colorado and on Sunday at Utah. UCLA was a 5.5-point underdog at Colorado and lost by six points, so we narrowly cashed in there. Josh Scott, Colorado's best post player, missed that game, but the Buffaloes were still able to cover at the end. On Sunday, UCLA was totally out of gas, and they were run off the floor 71-39 by a very good Utah Utes team.
Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
Conference play is underway, and that means a bigger slate of games to choose from this week.
Play #1- Play on Minnesota -1.5 (Fade Ohio State) on Tuesday, January 6
The Ohio State Buckeyes have a lot of extremely talented players, but most of them have very little experience. Ohio State has played one true road game this year, and that was a loss at Louisville. The Buckeyes have made a habit out of digging a deep hole in the first half and attempting to climb out of it over the course of the second half. Thad Matta's team is still trying to figure out their identity. They have run a bunch of really bad teams off the floor this year, but they don't have any quality wins so far this season. Minnesota has started 0-2 in the Big Ten Conference, so this is a desperate bunch of Golden Gophers. Richard Pitino's team lost at Purdue and at Maryland last week, but Minnesota is always a much better team on their home floor. Williams Arena gives the Gophers a really nice home-court advantage. Ohio State's youth and lack of road experience makes this a tough spot to start with, but add in the fact that Minnesota needs this game in a big way and you find a really tough spot for the Buckeyes. This line has already been released, so the play is Minnesota -1.5.
Play #2- Play on SMU (Fade Memphis) on Thursday, January 8
The Memphis Tigers have played 13 games so far this year. Zero of them have been on the road. They have had three neutral-site games and 10 games at home. Even with the friendly schedule, Memphis is just 8-5 so far this year. Josh Pastner's team is turning the ball over way too much, and they are getting a lot of bad shots on the offensive end. Larry Brown's SMU Mustangs haven't quite had the season they envisioned thus far, but that's largely due to Markus Kennedy being suspended. Now that Kennedy is back in the fold, the Mustangs should have a nice season. SMU matches up well with Memphis, and Moody Coliseum is a really tough place to play. I like to fade teams playing their first true road game of the year, and having your first on the road at SMU is a very tough task. Look for SMU to win comfortably here.
Play #3- Play on Loyola Chicago (Fade Wichita State) on Sunday, January 11
I know it seems awfully gutsy to fade Wichita State, but the Shockers aren't quite the same team they were last year. That's not to say that they aren't a good team. They are certainly a very good team. Last year's Shockers team was great, though. Without Cleanthony Early, the Shockers lose a key player that stretched the floor from the power forward position. Loyola Chicago is a team that won't get much respect because of their 10-22 record last year, but this team is much-improved. I've been impressed with their ability to stay with quality teams so far this year. Relatively difficult wins at Drake and at home against Illinois State make me believe that Wichita State isn't going to dominate the Missouri Valley Conference the way they did last year. The Shockers are still getting the same kind of respect from the oddsmakers that they got last year. That gives us value to fade them in certain situations like this one. This is Loyola's chance to prove they are a factor in the MVC.
Last Week's Results- 2 Wins (Colorado -5.5, Utah -12) 1 Loss (San Francisco +5)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 5 Wins 3 Losses (+$170)
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