NBA Handicapping for Best ATS Marks in Playoffs
by George Monroy - 5/12/2015
If you are an NBA bettor looking to get a little “bang for your buck” with entertaining matchups to wager on, then this past weekend was a 10 on the charts with three game-winning shots from three of the biggest names in the NBA. Paul Pierce nailed a ridiculous game-winning bank shot during Game 3 of the Washington versus Atlanta series that saw a call back to the days when “The Truth” ruled the playoffs with the Boston Celtics. Over in the Cleveland versus Chicago series, bettors saw Derrick Rose and LeBron James trade game winners over a three-day span that left NBA fans salivating at how great these playoffs have truly been over the last month.
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Every single night there seems to be a new alpha dog hogging up the news cycle with an amazing performance or shot. First it was Stephen Curry’s game-winner during the opening round, then it was Chris Paul’s, and now Pierce, James and Rose have each passed the baton. Let’s take a closer look at the trends and see which teams are winning the postseason from an ATS standpoint.
Against the Spread
Washington : 6-2 ATS record: The Wizards entered both series matchups against Toronto and Atlanta as an underdog and have been spectacular against the spread. Things might begin to change with the absence of John Wall, but the team owned the first part of the playoffs, covering five straight games and six of eight total matchups. Washington is an eight-point underdog heading into Game 5 against Atlanta and still might get some consideration from bettors because of how well the group has been playing.
Memphis : 6-3 ATS record: Outside of Game 4’s blowout loss to Golden State, Memphis has been a star against the spread, coving six of nine postseason matchups. The Grizzlies are 2-2 ATS against the Warriors and will be a 9.5-point underdog heading into Game 5. They have covered their spreads by an average of 4.5 points per game.
Houston : 7-2 totals record: Houston has gone “over” by an average of 7.3 point per game, which hasn’t been a surprise for the high-scoring team. The Rockets have not seen a total under 212 throughout the entire playoffs and have averaged nearly 220 points during their playoff matchups. The squad may be eliminated soon, but if they manage to stay around, taking the over is the best way to go.
Washington : 6-2 totals record: The Wizards have gone over is 75 percent of their playoff matchups and continue to be the surprise of the postseason in nearly every area. The Paul Pierce-led outfit has hit the over in seven of its last eight matchups and continue to see totals in the 197-point range. Heading into Game 5, the Washington and Atlanta total is currently at 198 points at Bovada.
Memphis : 2-7 totals record: This one is probably not surprising, but the low-post grinding Grizzlies are the one of best “under” teams in the playoffs. The squad has managed to stay below its totals mark by an average of 2.2 points per game and is on a four-game under streak. During its second-round matchup against Golden State, the team has seen an average total of 196.5 points per game, but both squads are only scoring in the 194-point range.
Golden State : 1-6-1 totals mark: The Warriors leading the way with the best under mark might be the most shocking statistic of the postseason. The high-flying, 3-point shooting team has gone over just one time in eight playoff matchups. The No. 1 seed has yet to break the 190-point mark during its second-round series against Memphis. If Golden State advances, taking a look at the under might be the best way to make a profit. Coach Steve Kerr has slowed his team’s offense down, while the oddsmakers have been slow to respond.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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