NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News for Week 7

by Alan Matthews - 10/16/2015

Normally I will do an overall preview of the coming weekend in college football in this space or focus on one key game as my lead, but I want to take one last look back at Monday, which was the newsiest day of college football I can remember in years.

I already touched on Florida quarterback Will Grier being suspended for a calendar year, so let's examine two Bovada specials on the next head coaches at the two USC schools: Southern Cal and South Carolina.

Of course, Steve Sarkisian was fired by the Trojans on Monday. The site lists Utah's Kyle Whittingham as the +350 favorite to replace Sarkisian on a full-time basis next year. And there's no question Whittingham would take the job if offered -- by some reports, he was Michigan's second choice if Jim Harbaugh said no. The Eagles' Chip Kelly is +600 and on Thursday tried to put an end to any rumors of him returning to college. He also added that USC hadn't contact, not that he probably would admit that. The latest report links Ravens coach John Harbaugh to the job, but he's not a betting option. USC approached Harbaugh two years ago, but he said no thanks. Maybe with the Ravens struggling this year he is ready to join his brother in the college ranks. I don't think anyone on the Bovada list will be the guy.

As for who replaces Steve Spurrier at South Carolina, Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart is the +250 favorite. Some think Smart is Nick Saban's heir apparent at Alabama, but Saban has shown no signs of quitting anytime soon. I think it will either be Smart or Memphis' Justin Fuente (+400) who gets it. Do the Gamecocks want an offensive or defensive mind? Most schools lean offense these days.

Here's some news, notes and any line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

Texas Tech at Kansas (+31.5): For the second straight week -- and probably not the last time this season -- the Jayhawks are the biggest dogs on the board. This opened at 30. KU was a 46-point home dog last week against Baylor and naturally didn't cover, losing 66-7. The Bears piled up 644 total yards while possessing the ball for a little more than only 24 minutes. Texas Tech can score at the same pace as Baylor. I see no way KU doesn't go winless. According to the numbers, the Jayhawks' best chance for a victory will come at K-State on Nov. 28, and FPI's system only gives KU a 4.0 percent in that game. When does basketball season start? At least those Jayhawks are No. 5 in the preseason Coaches' Poll.

No. 7 Michigan State at No. 12 Michigan (-7.5): This moved from 6.5, and I call this the overreaction line of the week. Back when 5Dimes put up early game of the year odds, the Spartans were touchdown favorites for this one. Michigan obviously is better than anyone thought it would be and brings the nation's top defense and three straight shutouts into this one. But those were against a BYU team starting a freshman quarterback, a terrible Maryland squad and an offensively-challenged and clearly overrated Northwestern team. Michigan State hasn't looked very good since beating Oregon, and I get that win doesn't look impressive now. But I also think the Spartans players were in neutral since that game. They won't be here. A key could be the health of MSU's two best offensive linemen, left tackle Jack Conklin and center Jack Allen. Both are hurt and their availability for Saturday's game is in question. The team that runs for the most yards in this series has won a whopping 42 of the past 45 matchups. MSU is looking to beat Michigan for the seventh time in eight years for the first time.

No. 10 Alabama at No. 9 Texas A&M (+4): Unfortunately, this game and the Michigan State-Michigan matchup both begin at 3:30 p.m. Guess that's why they invented picture-in-picture and sports bars. If the Tide lose, they are not going to win the SEC West or obviously make the College Football Playoff. The Aggies would clear a big hurdle with a win to stay unbeaten, but they still have to go to Ole Miss and LSU. This is definitely a payback game for Kevin Sumlin and Co. as they were embarrassed 59-0 last season in Tuscaloosa. A&M is only 1-5 all-time at home under Sumlin against ranked teams, although that victory was last time out, Oct. 3 vs. Mississippi State. Coming off a bye week is obviously a nice advantage. Interestingly, since the start of 2007, Alabama has played 25 games against teams with at least a five-day rest advantage, 10 more than any other team in the nation. The Tide are 19-6 in those 25. Alabama has only had the rest advantage in four games since 2007, fewest in the SEC. Yep, the world is out to get Saban!

Air Force at Colorado State (+4.5): Obviously it depends on which book you check, but as of this writing this line has risen more than any other game on the board as it opened as pick'em. CSU was a very good team last year but is struggling and obviously misses Coach Jim McElwain, who was hired away by Florida and replaced by Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. You can't put it all on Bobo, though, as star QB Garrett Grayson also graduated. Two very different offenses as CSU averages 246.0 yards in the air -- using two QBs (Nick Stevens and Coleman Key) -- and has one of the nation's top receivers in All-American Rashard Higgins, who has 34 catches for 469 yards and four scores. AFA rarely throws the ball and ranks fifth in rushing at 320.8 ypg. CSU is 97th against the run, allowing 194.3 ypg. Air Force upset No. 21 Colorado State last season 27-24 on a last-second field goal. It was the Falcons' first win over a ranked team since 2010.

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