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NFL Survivor Pools Strategy Advice and Predictions: Week 11

by - 11/18/2015

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo

It has been a cruel, cruel year for survivor pool players so far, and last week was certainly no exception. There were 14 games played. Eleven were won by the underdog. Included in the losers were four of the five biggest dogs of the week. When that happens you can be certain that a whole lot of survivor pool players had a lousy Sunday.

A lot of second-chance pool players are probably looking for a fourth or fifth chance by now. Just brutal. Sadly, I don't have a lot of good news this week. In fact, from where I sit it's another brutal week of options for survivor pool players. There are only two games that are clear and obvious picks.

Carolina looks good over Washington, but the chances that the Panthers are available to most players is low. Even that isn't certain - Washington scored about a million points last week, and the Panthers are going to lose one of these days. The other one is New England, but if they are still available to pick then you are doing this wrong. So, with those likely off the table, what's left? Not much:

Seattle vs. San Francisco: The Seahawks are probably the best pick that is perhaps available, but I sure hate it. The Seahawks are a mere shadow of themselves and just haven't looked very good. The Niners aren't exactly killers, but they did beat the Falcons in their last game, Blaine Gabbert looks at least a little bit competent, and they have had a bye week to get ready for this one. The Seahawks should be able to win this one, but they aren't exactly easy to trust here, and I wouldn't sleep well if I picked them.

Atlanta vs. Indianapolis: The odds would suggest that the Falcons are a comfortable pick here. The odds aren't paying attention. The Falcons lately have looked like the Falcons over the last couple of years - confused, lacking cohesion, underachieving. Generally, they are a frustrating team that should be much better than they have looked. The Colts aren't in a good place - Andrew Luck is out, and they weren't playing very well even with him at the helm. The Falcons should be very well positioned given everything the Colts are dealing with, but it is the Falcons we are talking about. A viable pick, but not a comfortable one.

Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay: The Eagles are favored by almost as much as the Falcons, but I don't like this game any more than that one. The Eagles have flashes of competence, but you certainly can't rely on it. The Bucs have gotten better as the season has progressed and certainly could be capable of keeping this one interesting. Plus, there is uncertainty at QB for the Eagles as I write this. An easy pass in my eyes.

Dallas vs. Miami: Dallas is getting some attention from players because Tony Romo could be returning. We don't know with certainty that he is, though, and even if he does it's tough to trust that he can completely and emphatically turn this team around in just one week. They have looked awful lately, and it's not just because of their QB play. And we don't know how much rust Romo will have to shake off. I wouldn't pick them. I wouldn't pick the Dolphins, either, though - they have been far too inconsistent under the new coaching regime.

Chicago vs. Denver: It would have seemed impossible to consider this game just a couple of weeks ago, but now it is probably as attractive as any. The Broncos have been a mess the last couple of weeks, and now we are entering the Brock Osweiler era. That doesn't exactly inspire me. The Bears are playing fairly decent football lately, and the Denver defense is going to be worked extra hard in this one because the offense won't keep them off the field. I don't love the Bears here, but I like them as much as any pick - and they are likely an available one.

St. Louis at Baltimore: Things are so bleak this week that I actually think that a road underdog that is below .500 could be no worse than the second-best pick on the board. The Rams are going with Case Keenum under center in place of Nick Foles. I like a lot of what Keenum did in Houston, and he has had plenty of time to prepare for this. The team has more tools than they have consistently shown. The Ravens are a mess and seem like a team poised right on the brink of writing off their season. This is definitely a gamble, but I would take the Rams here is I had to. In fact, I already have in one of the two pools I am still alive in. An added advantage of taking them is that few people will be joining you in the pick, so you have a chance to beat a lot of players if things go your way.

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