2015 Super Bowl Teasers Betting: Picks and Predictions for Big Game
by George Monroy - 1/27/2015
Most of the hype and media attention heading into Super Bowl week has focused on Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and "Deflate-gate", while the rest of it has focused on Richard Sherman and the infamous "You Mad Bro?" game. However, what has been lost in the shuffle over the last few days is the actual analysis of the matchup. For bettors, the Super Bowl will be the last chance to wager on a football game for nearly seven months.
Since we have reached the grand finale and should exhaust every gambling option on the board, let's take a closer look at using a six-point teaser to wager on Sunday's New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks matchup. Doc's Sports prefers to use basic strategy teasers, which are six-point, two-team plays that revolve around the NFL key numbers of three and seven. However, since a complete basic strategy teaser line is not available for this Super Bowl, we will use a two-play, six-point wager instead. Here is closer look at every teaser option on the board for the big game. All odds come from Sportsbook.ag.
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New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks
Original Spread: Patriots -1.5 at Sportsbook.ag
Seattle +7.5 and Under 54
The original number that the oddsmakers released was Seattle favored by one or two points, depending on the sportsbook. The public immediately moved the line to a pick'em, and early money during the following week pushed it to New England -1.5 or -2 at most sportsbooks. The Seahawks were originally favored, and bettors can now tease them up to 7.5 points, which turns out to be nine-point switch from the opening line.
The biggest question for this teaser is do you take the "over" or "under". The Super Bowl total has gone over 54 only twice in the last 10 games (Ravens 34, 49ers 31 and Packers 31, Steelers 25). Last season the Seahawks put up one of the greatest Super Bowl performances of all time and the total still managed to stay under 54. Taking Seattle plus the points and the new under feels like the strongest play.
Seattle +7.5 and Over 42
This teaser seems to also have value, because Seattle was able to put up 43 points on its own it last year's Super Bowl. However, that performance was probably an aberration because of Denver's lack of experience and Peyton Manning's horrid game. Do not expect New England to make as many mistakes. Brady and Belichick are seasoned veterans who do not crumble in the moment. The Super Bowl has gone under 42 points only twice in the last 10 years, but both of those games did involve the Patriots playing a tough defensive-minded team (New York). Three of Seattle's four regular-season losses were by less than 7.5 points, and the other was by only nine. Taking the points and over 42 also feels like a strong play.
New England +4.5 and Under 54
Seattle did not look impressive at any moment during the conference championship and was gifted this Super Bowl appearance more than anything. New England is currently a 1.5-point favorite, and teasing them into a situation where they receive points could be a great bet to make. The Patriots will enter this matchup with a chip on their shoulder and a 'nobody-believes-in-us attitude', which could be enough to get the job done. This teaser doesn't feel like a great situation because Seattle is more likely to blow New England out than the opposite.
New England +4.5 and Over 42
This feels like the worst teaser of the bunch and the one to stay away from. If Seattle is going to win this game, it will be by pressuring Brady and slowing down the New England offense. A 24-14 game final score is in play, especially since the Patriots could only score 17 and 14 points during their last two Super Bowl appearances. If you feel like wagering on the Patriots or a total, you might be better off doing them separately.
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