Alabama vs. Clemson National Championship Game Expert Picks & Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/8/2016
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Clemson Tigers, Monday Jan. 11, 8:30 p.m. ET
There is a real contrast in experience as we get ready for the National Championship Game. Alabama is going for their fourth national title since 2009. They are the most dominant program of our era - and it's not even close. It's not like Clemson is totally coming out of nowhere - they have won a national title, and their first undefeated season came in 1900 - 115 years before they attempt to finish off this one.
It has been a long time, though, since they have been at this uber-elite level of competition. The coaching staff is new to what they are facing too - except for defensive coordinator Brent Venables, who won a title at Oklahoma back in 2000. Now, Alabama hasn't won a title since 2012, so a lot of players haven't been through this before. The institutional knowledge of what needs to be done runs so deep there, though, that the advantage is stark. Now, in very real and immediate terms, we will get to see if that experience actually matters. It's just one of the many things that makes this a very good, fascinating final.
National Championship Game Betting Storylines
We have a second round of a Heisman showdown going on in this game. When Heisman winner and Alabama running back Derrick Henry and third-place finisher, Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, meet it will be the 16th time that Heisman finalists have gone on to meet in a bowl game. Nine of those 16 meetings have included the Heisman winner. For what it's worth, Henry has an edge here - previous Heisman winners have won five of those nine meetings with other finalists, including four that have clinched national titles.
Dabo Swinney has proven to be a very good head coach. There is no denying that - you don't lead an undefeated team to the National Championship Game by fluke. He is in a totally different realm than Nick Saban is, though. Swinney has been head coach at Clemson since 2008. That was his first head-coaching gig. Previously, he was an assistant for the Tigers and then an assistant at Alabama during the Tide's dark years. That's it. Saban, meanwhile, got his head job at Toledo in 1990. He has four national titles, and about a million division titles, and if you were making a list of the best football coaches on the planet you couldn't possibly get beyond the top three without listing him. I know I'm back on the experience bandwagon again, but I can't help but consider that in this spot. Swinney is very good. Saban is better and infinitely more experienced on this stage. I leave it to you to determine how much you think that that matters.
There is a dizzying amount of talent on both sides of the ball for both teams. These are the two best teams in the country, and they have repeatedly proven it. You could talk about the running games, a bit of a mismatch at QB in Clemson's favor, or so much else. What stands out above all else, though, is the ridiculous defensive lines. Clemson's big guys are mean and impressive - they would be the story in that regard in most games they play. Against this Alabama unit, though, they are a distant second. Alabama is so strong and deep on the line right now that their second unit would, by itself, be among the very best in the country. They have given opposing quarterbacks fits all year - Connor Cook will need years of therapy after the semifinal horrors he endured. Both offenses are dangerous, and both are very well coached. The one that can best deal with the tests they face from the opposing defensive line are going to have the better day overall No other aspect - not even the experience factors I won't shut up about - matter to the outcome of this game as much as this.
National Championship Game Odds and Betting Trends
The line movement has not exactly been fast and furious in this one. It opened with Alabama favored by seven points. It has largely stayed at that level, though 6.5 in now available in several spots. About two-thirds of bets have been on Alabama, so the movement would suggest that sharp money has been slanted towards the Tigers. The total sits at 50.5.
Alabama is 4-0 ATS both in their last four against the ACC and in their last four played on grass. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games and 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
Alabama vs. Clemson National Championship Game Expert Picks & Predictions
I have gone back and forth on this game more times than should be possible in the time we have known that the teams will be playing. Ultimately, though, I come down to two things - the ferocious Alabama defensive line, and, not surprisingly, the experience edge Alabama has. At seven points I was stumped, but now that I can get 6.5, I'll take it - though I won't be bragging about the value I found in this game.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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