NCAA Basketball Betting: Top-5 Teams Struggling Against the Spread

by Chris Vasile - 2/15/2016

University of North Carolina guard Marcus Paige

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

That saying has never been more accurate in a single college basketball season up until this year.

There have been 13 teams to crack the AP Top 5 in the country; Duke, Iowa, Iowa St, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Villanova, Virginia and Xavier.

If you were to guess on how many total losses the aforementioned 13 teams have combined for, you would be lying if you said any number north of 15.

The season started as expected, with the top teams hammering out win after win against "cupcake" schools to shake off the early-season rust. However, once the calendar hit December, the ATS results worsened and the SU column doubled in losses. That was just a sign of things to come once we got the New Year under way.

As January rolled around and conference play started, the records for both SU and ATS results continued their downward spiral for those teams lucky enough to crack the Top 5.

February is on pace to shatter any hope for Top-5 teams, and we are only half way through the month.

Let's take a closer look at what the numbers say for the Top-5 teams SU and ATS

November:

31-3 SU

16-17 ATS (1 no line)

SU Home/Away

16-1 SU (H)

3-1 SU (A)

12-1 SU (N)

ATS H/A

6-10 ATS (H)

2-2 ATS (A)

8-5 ATS (N)

December

28-6 SU

13-18 ATS

SU H/A

23-0 SU (H)

3-4 SU (A)
2-2 SU(N)

ATS H/A

9-10 ATS (H)

2-5 ATS (A)

2-3 ATS (N)

January

29-13 SU

15-27 ATS

SU H/A

19-3 SU (H)

10-10 SU (A)

ATS H/A

10-12 ATS (H)

5-15 ATS (A)

February (Up to Feb. 14)

13-7 SU

8-11 ATS

SU H/A

8-2 (H)

5-5 (A)

ATS H/A

4-5(H)

4-6 (A)

As you can see by the numbers, the Top-5 ranked teams in the country are having one hell of a time covering the spread. They are covering at a clip of 41 percent for a record of 52-73 ATS.

To make matters worse, this season has set the bar for most losses by teams ranked in the Top 5 with 29 losses straight up. Compared to only 21 losses for the top teams last season, we could be on pace to see a number that will not be broken for a very long time. This college season has been nothing short of entertaining, and I do believe parity has caught up to the perennial powerhouse teams.

Pick:	KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -5.5
Start:	December 15, 2024 @ 1:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #465 Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 over Cleveland Browns (1p.m., Sunday, December 15 CBS) The Chiefs keep winning games and sooner or later one of those wins will come by a comfortable margin. I look for that to be this Sunday against a Browns team that is just playing out the string. Cleveland currently sits at 3- 10 and will enter this game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. Their only win came against Pittsburgh in a snow game on a short week. All 4 of those losses by the Browns have come over the posted number for this game. Kansas City is better on both sides of the football, and I just do not see the Browns offense keeping pace. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in basketball, football, and hockey. We will feature our World-Famous Nonconference Game of the Year in College Basketball on Saturday. This game has won 13 of the 15 years it has been in existence and it is a must have for any big game hunter. Read More Read Less

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